UFC 104: Machida vs Shogun
Los Angeles, USA
24 Oct 2009
Lightweight
VS
46%
Tibau
54%
Neer
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
GT
Gleison Tibau
33 – 14
5'10"71" reachSouthpaw42 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 15
JN
Josh Neer
"The Dentist"
36 – 16
Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'11"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Neer

This is a genuine toss-up — Tibau at 46% vs Neer at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Neer has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Tibau's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Neer has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Tibau
Neer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
71"
Reach
+72"
42+
Age
43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Tibau
Neer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.4
18.1
43.2
Performance Avg
39.5
34
Quality of Victory
39
74
Momentum Score
100
Tibau
Neer
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.3
35%
Strike Accuracy
50%
1.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
5
0
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance7
0Clinch1
1Ground0
Tibau
Neer
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.8
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tibau
Neer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
32
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
28/47 fights
Chin rating based on
15/52 fights
Tibau
Neer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
74
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · R2
Tibau
Neer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
3
11
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tibau
Neer
Striking1.8 / 0.8Volume6.6 / 3.5Grappling3.6 / 4.8Wrestling2.5 / 3.4Submission2.5 / 5.0Pressure3.9 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.8
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.4
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Tibau
Strike Zones
Neer
Tibau
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY1LEGS8 absorbed
Neer
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY1LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tibau targets the head (100% of attacks) — Neer absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Neer targets the head (63% of attacks) — Tibau absorbs 63% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tibau
RND
Neer
0/0R00/0

Tibau · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0102.8L4.5W5.0W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.0W5.0W5.5L4.5W5.0W5.9L4.5W5.2W4.7W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.2W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W4.5W2.0L4.0L3.5L5.5L2006-112009-042011-112014-072018-06
WinLossTrend

Neer · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0101.5L5.0W4.5W5.5L4.0L4.5W5.5L5.2W5.5L5.5L4.2W5.0W1.5L1.5L5.7L2005-082006-082009-082012-062013-02
WinLossTrend

Tibau · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Desmond GreenRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2018-01
L · R1
Abel TrujilloRating 4
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
L · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 2
Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
W · Dec · R3
Norman ParkeRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01

Neer · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
L · Sub · R1
Justin EdwardsRating 1.5
Submission
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
L · KO · R1
Mike PyleRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · 2012-06
W · Sub · R1
Duane LudwigRating 5
Submission
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · 2012-01
W · R2
Keith WisniewskiRating 4.2
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · 2011-10

News & Media

Gleison Tibau · Josh Neer
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