UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
Vancouver, Canada
14 Sept 2019
Light Heavyweight
VS
30%
Cirkunov
70%
Crute
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:38
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Crute
Crute is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Crute throws more volume but Cirkunov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Cirkunov's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Crute has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Cirkunov
Crute
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'2"
77"+
Reach
74"
39
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cirkunov
Crute
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.3
66.0
50.1
Performance Avg
56.7
53
Quality of Victory
55
59
Momentum Score
91
Cirkunov
Crute
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
2.1
54%
Strike Accuracy
51%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
19
2
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance2
2Clinch4
3Ground15
Cirkunov
Crute
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.7
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
6.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
4.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cirkunov
Crute
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/24 fights
Chin rating based on
12/18 fights
Cirkunov
Crute
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
91
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Upcoming
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Cirkunov
Crute
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
4
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cirkunov
Crute
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
6.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
4.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
8.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
8.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.8
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.2
CirkunovCrute
Strike Zones
Cirkunov
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedCrute
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cirkunov targets the head (67% of attacks) — Crute absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Crute targets the head (90% of attacks) — Cirkunov absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cirkunov
RND
Crute
0/0R00/0
Cirkunov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Crute · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Cirkunov · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Alonzo MenifieldRating 2.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10
L · Sub · R2
Wellington TurmanRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · 2022-02
L · Dec · R3
Krzysztof JotkoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · KO · R1
Ryan SpannRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · 2021-03
W · Sub · R1
Jimmy CruteRating 6.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
Crute · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Ivan ErslanRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Marcin PrachnioRating 5.4Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
Upcoming
Rodolfo BellatoDecision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
L · Sub · R2
Alonzo MenifieldRating 3.6Submission
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
Upcoming
Alonzo MenifieldDecision
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02