UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
Toronto, Canada
10 Dec 2011
Heavyweight
VS
52%
Mir
48%
Nogueira
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:38
FM
Frank Mir
18 – 11
6'3"79" reachSouthpaw47 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 21
AR
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
"Minotauro"
34 – 10
Well-Rounded3-fight slide49 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'3"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Mir

This is a genuine toss-up — Mir at 52% vs Nogueira at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Nogueira throws more volume but Mir connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Mir's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nogueira has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Mir
Nogueira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
79"+
Reach
77"
47+
Age
49
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Mir
Nogueira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.2
19.4
57.4
Performance Avg
49.3
56
Quality of Victory
52
88
Momentum Score
91
Mir
Nogueira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.2
48%
Strike Accuracy
43%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
16
3
Body
5
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance6
6Clinch12
0Ground3
Mir
Nogueira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.7
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Mir
Nogueira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
8
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
8
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/29 fights
Chin rating based on
11/44 fights
Mir
Nogueira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
91
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
Mir
Nogueira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
81%
60%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
8
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mir
Nogueira
Striking4.3 / 2.9Volume2.2 / 4.1Grappling4.3 / 4.2Wrestling3.0 / 2.9Submission5.0 / 4.0Pressure7.5 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
2.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
Mir
Strike Zones
Nogueira
Mir
Attacking
1HEAD3BODY2LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD5BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Nogueira
Attacking
16HEAD5BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD3BODY2LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Mir targets the body (50% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Nogueira targets the head (76% of attacks) — Mir absorbs 76% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mir
RND
Nogueira
0/0R00/0

Mir · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.0W5.0W1.5L5.0W4.0W5.2W5.0W1.5L4.5W1.5L5.0W5.0W5.1W2.1L5.0W1.5L5.5W4.5W5.0W2.1L5.5L1.5L5.5L5.0W5.0W6.2L1.5L2001-112006-022009-122013-082016-03
WinLossTrend

Nogueira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.5
0104.5W5.2W2.1L4.5W1.5L5.0W1.5L5.2W2.1L1.5L5.5L2007-072009-082011-122014-042015-08
WinLossTrend

Mir · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Mark HuntRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir · 2016-03
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · 2015-09
W · KO · R1
Todd DuffeeRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07
W · KO · R1
Antonio SilvaRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir · 2015-02
L · Dec · R3
Alistair OvereemRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02

Nogueira · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Stefan StruveRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · 2015-08
L · KO · R1
Roy NelsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04
L · Sub · R2
Fabricio WerdumRating 2.1
Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · 2013-06
W · Sub · R2
Dave HermanRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
L · Sub · R1
Frank MirRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · 2011-12

News & Media

Frank Mir · Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira
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