METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
Las Vegas, USA
25 Sept 2021
Middleweight
VS
42%
Diaz
58%
Lawler
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:44
★ Official Result
Robbie LawlerwinsKO/TKOR3 · 0:44
def. Nick Diaz · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Lawler
→
Actual result
Lawler wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Diaz at 42% vs Lawler at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Diaz's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Lawler has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DiazLawler
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Diaz
Lawler
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
76"+
Reach
74"
43+
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Diaz
Lawler
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.9
40.7
49.6
Performance Avg
51.0
49
Quality of Victory
45
46
Momentum Score
90
Diaz
Lawler
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.7
/ 10
6.5
/ 10
7.5
Style: Pressure
5.5
2.1
Style: Volume
4.9
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
8 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
6
4
Body
3
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Diaz
Lawler
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.6
/ 10
1.1
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
2.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Diaz
Lawler
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/36 fights
Chin rating based on
25/46 fights
Diaz
Lawler
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
90
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Diaz
Lawler
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
86%
53%
4
KO / TKO Wins
8
2
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Diaz
Lawler
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.5
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
DiazLawler
Strike Zones
Diaz
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedLawler
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Diaz targets the body (67% of attacks) — Lawler absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Lawler targets the head (60% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Diaz
RND
Lawler
0/0R00/0
Diaz · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Robbie LawlerKO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
Upcoming
Anderson SilvaUFC 183: Silva vs Diaz · 2015-01
L · Dec · R5
Georges St-PierreDecision
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · 2013-03
L · Dec · R5
Carlos ConditDecision
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · 2012-02
W · Dec · R3
BJ PennDecision
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · 2011-10
Lawler · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Niko PriceKO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
L · KO · R2
Bryan BarberenaKO/TKO
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
W · KO · R3
Nick DiazKO/TKO
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyDecision
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic · 2020-08
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonDecision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08