UFC 94: St-Pierre vs Penn 2
Las Vegas, USA
31 Jan 2009
Lightweight
VS
56%
Guida
44%
Diaz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Guida
This is a genuine toss-up — Guida at 56% vs Diaz at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Diaz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Diaz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Diaz has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Guida
Diaz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+6'0"
70"
Reach
+76"
44
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Guida
Diaz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
35.3
40.7
Performance Avg
53.4
35
Quality of Victory
50
78
Momentum Score
100
Guida
Diaz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.9
36%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
18
1
Body
5
9
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance15
4Clinch7
0Ground1
Guida
Diaz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.6
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Diaz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
58
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
8
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
27/35 fights
Guida
Diaz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Guida
Diaz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
75%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
5
Submission Wins
10
11
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Guida
Diaz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.6
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.9
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.3
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.2
GuidaDiaz
Strike Zones
Guida
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedDiaz
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the legs (90% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯Diaz targets the head (78% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 78% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Guida
RND
Diaz
0/0R00/0
Guida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Diaz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3Submission
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Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonRating 5.9Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
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L · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.8UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 4.5Decision
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L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorRating 7.5Decision
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