UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
23 Jan 2021
Middleweight
VS
65%
Tavares
35%
Junior
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AC
Antonio Carlos Junior
"Cara de Sapato"
11 – 5
Submission Hunter3-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'2"
CFR 19
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Tavares
Tavares holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Junior has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Junior has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Tavares has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Tavares's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Tavares
Junior
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
74"
Reach
+79"
38
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tavares
Junior
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.6
19.1
40.1
Performance Avg
55.3
29
Quality of Victory
53
49
Momentum Score
41
Tavares
Junior
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.6
45%
Strike Accuracy
43%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
9
3
Body
0
8
Leg
5
RangeRange
18Distance14
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Tavares
Junior
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.4
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tavares
Junior
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
6
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
8 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
29/34 fights
Chin rating based on
13/16 fights
Tavares
Junior
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
41
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Tavares
Junior
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
71%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
5
14
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tavares
Junior
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.4
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
7.1
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
TavaresJunior
Strike Zones
Tavares
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedJunior
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tavares targets the head (45% of attacks) — Junior absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Junior targets the head (64% of attacks) — Tavares absorbs 64% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tavares
RND
Junior
0/0R00/0
Tavares · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Junior · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Tavares · Last 5
Upcoming
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