UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva
Stockholm, Sweden
14 Apr 2012
Light Heavyweight
VS
50%
Gustafsson
50%
Silva
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AG
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
18 – 8
6'5"79" reachOrthodox39 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 25
TS
Thiago Silva
19 – 6
Knockout Artist2-fight win streak43 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'2"
CFR 25

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gustafsson

This is a genuine toss-up — Gustafsson at 50% vs Silva at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Silva has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Gustafsson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gustafsson
Silva
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'2"
79"+
Reach
74"
39+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gustafsson
Silva
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
24.8
24.7
50.3
Performance Avg
60.6
47
Quality of Victory
54
39
Momentum Score
100
Gustafsson
Silva
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.5
44%
Strike Accuracy
54%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
12
2
Body
2
6
Leg
6
RangeRange
29Distance20
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Gustafsson
Silva
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.3
/ 10
0.3
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.2
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gustafsson
Silva
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/26 fights
Chin rating based on
12/25 fights
Gustafsson
Silva
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Gustafsson
Silva
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
86%
5
KO / TKO Wins
6
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gustafsson
Silva
Striking6.1 / 10.0Volume3.5 / 2.5Grappling2.3 / 0.3Wrestling1.6 / 0.2Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure6.6 / 8.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.3
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.2
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.1
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
Gustafsson
Strike Zones
Silva
Gustafsson
Attacking
21HEAD2BODY6LEGS29 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD2BODY6LEGS20 absorbed
Silva
Attacking
12HEAD2BODY6LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD2BODY6LEGS29 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gustafsson targets the head (72% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 72% of strikes there
🎯Silva targets the head (60% of attacks) — Gustafsson absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gustafsson
RND
Silva
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Gustafsson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W1.5L5.2W5.0W5.2W5.0W4.5W4.5W7.3L5.1W1.5L5.5L5.1W5.9W4.5L4.5L1.5L2.7L2009-112011-122015-012019-062022-07
WinLossTrend

Silva · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W5.2W5.0W5.0W1.5L5.0W5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W2007-052008-052010-012013-10
WinLossTrend

Gustafsson · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Nikita KrylovRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Fabricio WerdumRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Sub · R4
Anthony SmithRating 4.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
L · KO · R3
Jon JonesRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · KO · R5
Glover TeixeiraRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05

Silva · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Matt HamillRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10
W · KO · R1
Rafael CavalcanteRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · 2013-06
Upcoming
Stanislav Nedkov
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · 2012-11
L · Dec · R3
Alexander GustafssonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs Silva · 2012-04
Upcoming
Brandon Vera
UFC 125: Resolution · 2011-01

News & Media

Alexander Gustafsson · Thiago Silva
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