UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis
Norfolk, USA
11 Nov 2017
Lightweight
VS
29%
Lauzon
71%
Guida
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:07
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Guida
Guida is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lauzon has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Lauzon has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lauzon's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Guida has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lauzon
Guida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
71"+
Reach
70"
42+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lauzon
Guida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
44.2
51.5
Performance Avg
40.7
49
Quality of Victory
35
59
Momentum Score
78
Lauzon
Guida
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.0
43%
Strike Accuracy
36%
4.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
5 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
20
0
Body
1
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
1Distance6
0Clinch0
0Ground18
Lauzon
Guida
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lauzon
Guida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
8
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/44 fights
Chin rating based on
37/60 fights
Lauzon
Guida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
78
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Lauzon
Guida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
39%
5
KO / TKO Wins
2
7
Submission Wins
5
3
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lauzon
Guida
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
4.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.8
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
2.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
LauzonGuida
Strike Zones
Lauzon
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedGuida
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lauzon targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Guida targets the head (83% of attacks) — Lauzon absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lauzon
RND
Guida
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lauzon · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Guida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Lauzon · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Jonathan PearceRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10
L · KO · R2
Chris GruetzemacherRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
L · KO · R1
Clay GuidaRating 2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Stevie RayRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Marcin HeldRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04