UFC Live: Vera vs Jones
Broomfield, USA
21 Mar 2010
Lightweight
VS
70%
Guida
30%
Gugerty
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:40
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Guida
Guida is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 25 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gugerty has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Guida has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gugerty has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Guida
Gugerty
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
44
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Guida
Gugerty
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
19.1
40.7
Performance Avg
48.4
35
Quality of Victory
54
78
Momentum Score
52
Guida
Gugerty
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.3
36%
Strike Accuracy
30%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
0
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
1Clinch0
7Ground0
Guida
Gugerty
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Gugerty
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
64
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
8
Sub Losses
3
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
5/22 fights
Guida
Gugerty
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
52
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
Guida
Gugerty
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
2
11
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Guida
Gugerty
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
GuidaGugerty
Strike Zones
Guida
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedGugerty
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the head (75% of attacks) — Gugerty absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Guida
RND
Gugerty
0/0R00/0
Guida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Gugerty · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
Gugerty · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Clay GuidaRating 3.2Submission
UFC Live: Vera vs Jones · 2010-03
L · Sub · R2
Terry EtimRating 2.8Submission
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
W · Sub · R1
Matt GriceRating 5Submission
UFC 100 · 2009-07
L · Sub · R3
Spencer FisherRating 4Submission
UFC 90: Silva vs Cote · 2008-10
W · Sub · R1
Dale HarttRating 5Submission
UFC: Silva vs Irvin · 2008-07