UFC 95: Sanchez vs Stevenson
London, United Kingdom
21 Feb 2009
Welterweight
VS
45%
Hardy
55%
Markham
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:09
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Markham
This is a genuine toss-up — Hardy at 45% vs Markham at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Markham has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Striking split: Markham throws more volume but Hardy connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Hardy's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Markham has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Hardy
Markham
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
74"+
Reach
71"
44
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hardy
Markham
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.4
18.6
46.0
Performance Avg
49.3
37
Quality of Victory
60
38
Momentum Score
43
Hardy
Markham
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.5
34%
Strike Accuracy
22%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
2
0
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance2
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Hardy
Markham
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hardy
Markham
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
56
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/35 fights
Chin rating based on
3/23 fights
Hardy
Markham
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
38
43
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Hardy
Markham
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hardy
Markham
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
HardyMarkham
Strike Zones
Hardy
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedMarkham
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hardy targets the head (60% of attacks) — Markham absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Markham targets the head (100% of attacks) — Hardy absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hardy
RND
Markham
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Hardy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Markham · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.7WinLossTrend
Hardy · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Amir SadollahRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · 2012-09
W · KO · R1
Duane LudwigRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · 2012-05
L · Sub · R3
Chris LytleRating 4Submission
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Anthony JohnsonRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · 2011-03
L · KO · R1
Carlos ConditRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · 2010-10
Markham · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Nate DiazRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy · 2010-03
L · KO · R1
Dan HardyRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 95: Sanchez vs Stevenson · 2009-02
W · KO · R1
Brodie FarberRating 5KO/TKO
UFC: Silva vs Irvin · 2008-07