UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Inglewood, USA
18 Jan 2025
Middleweight
VS
48%
Reese
52%
Bekoev
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:04
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Bekoev
This is a genuine toss-up — Reese at 48% vs Bekoev at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Bekoev has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Bekoev has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Reese's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Bekoev has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Reese
Bekoev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'0"
77"+
Reach
72"
32
Age
+30
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Reese
Bekoev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.0
60.6
46.8
Performance Avg
56.0
40
Quality of Victory
60
88
Momentum Score
58
Reese
Bekoev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.7
50%
Strike Accuracy
58%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
16
0
Body
3
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance3
1Clinch0
11Ground18
Reese
Bekoev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Reese
Bekoev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
66
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/13 fights
Chin rating based on
4/25 fights
Reese
Bekoev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
88
58
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Reese
Bekoev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Reese
Bekoev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
ReeseBekoev
Strike Zones
Reese
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedBekoev
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Reese targets the head (100% of attacks) — Bekoev absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Bekoev targets the head (76% of attacks) — Reese absorbs 76% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Reese
RND
Bekoev
0/0R00/0
Reese · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Bekoev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.0WinLossTrend
Reese · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Michel PereiraRating 6.1Decision
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Upcoming
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Bekoev · Last 4
L · Sub · R3
Tresean GoreRating 5.2Submission
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L · KO · R3
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