UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira
Sao Paulo, Brazil
19 Nov 2016
Welterweight
VS
41%
Alves
59%
Usman
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Warlley
Warlley Alves
15 – 8
5'11"72" reachOrthodox35 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 39
Kamaru
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
21 – 4
Well-Rounded39 yrsSwitch76" reach6'0"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Usman

This is a genuine toss-up — Alves at 41% vs Usman at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Alves throws more volume but Usman connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Alves's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Alves
Usman
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
72"
Reach
+76"
35+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Alves
Usman
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.1
57.4
49.3
Performance Avg
61.2
49
Quality of Victory
46
30
Momentum Score
55
Alves
Usman
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.1
49%
Strike Accuracy
54%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
25
0
Body
5
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance20
0Clinch1
0Ground9
Alves
Usman
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.6
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.6
3
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alves
Usman
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R5.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/23 fights
Chin rating based on
19/25 fights
Alves
Usman
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
30
55
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · Dec · R5
Alves
Usman
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
31%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
3
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
11

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Alves
Usman
Striking3.5 / 4.2Volume3.0 / 7.2Grappling3.6 / 2.1Wrestling2.5 / 1.5Submission3.8 / 0.6Pressure5.9 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.6
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
3.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.2
Alves
Strike Zones
Usman
Alves
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
25HEAD5BODY0LEGS30 absorbed
Usman
Attacking
25HEAD5BODY0LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Alves targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Usman absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Usman targets the head (83% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Alves
RND
Usman
0/0R00/0

Alves · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W4.5W5.2W6.3W5.9L6.6L4.5W4.2W2.8L5.5W3.6L5.0W4.1L5.8L3.2L6.3L2014-052016-052018-082021-062024-05
WinLossTrend

Usman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W5.6W4.5W4.7W5.6W5.0W4.5W4.5W4.7W4.5W6.8W4.5W5.5W5.1W5.8W5.1L6.6L7.4L5.7W2015-072017-092019-122022-082025-06
WinLossTrend

Alves · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Abus MagomedovRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · KO · R1
Ikram AliskerovRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Nicolas DalbyRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · KO · R2
Jeremiah WellsRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
W · KO · R1
Mounir LazzezRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · 2021-01

Usman · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Khamzat ChimaevRating 7.4
Decision
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
L · KO · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11

News & Media

Warlley Alves · Kamaru Usman
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