UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes
Perth, Australia
27 Sept 2025
Middleweight
VS
63%
Rowston
37%
Petroski
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:41
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rowston
Rowston holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Petroski has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rowston has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Rowston throws more volume but Petroski connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Petroski has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rowston
Petroski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'0"
78"+
Reach
73"
31+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Rowston
Petroski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
74.7
44.3
68.0
Performance Avg
45.2
47
Quality of Victory
34
100
Momentum Score
63
Rowston
Petroski
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.8
0.8
50%
Strike Accuracy
55%
8.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.5
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
0
1
Body
0
3
Leg
7
RangeRange
8Distance7
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Rowston
Petroski
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.8
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.5
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rowston
Petroski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
10
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/18 fights
Chin rating based on
13/19 fights
Rowston
Petroski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
63
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Rowston
Petroski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
38%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rowston
Petroski
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.5
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
7.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
RowstonPetroski
Strike Zones
Rowston
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedPetroski
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rowston targets the head (67% of attacks) — Petroski absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Petroski targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Rowston absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rowston
RND
Petroski
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Rowston · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Petroski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Rowston · Last 3
W · Dec · R3
Robert BryczekRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · KO · R2
Cody BrundageRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Andre PetroskiRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
Petroski · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Cody BrundageRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Cam RowstonRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Edmen ShahbazyanRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Rodolfo VieiraRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Dylan BudkaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09