METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Lightweight
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
Las Vegas, USA
6 Dec 2014
Lightweight
VS
73%
Pettis
27%
Melendez
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 1:53
★ Official Result
Anthony PettiswinsSubmissionR2 · 1:53
def. Gilbert Melendez · UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Pettis
→
Actual result
Pettis wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Pettis is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pettis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 26 points.
Pettis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pettis's chin rating of 12 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PettisMelendez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Pettis
Melendez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
72"
Reach
+73"
39+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pettis
Melendez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.8
7.0
52.6
Performance Avg
20.7
51
Quality of Victory
25
72
Momentum Score
0
Pettis
Melendez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
0.9
52%
Strike Accuracy
30%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
4
1
Body
4
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance4
2Clinch4
0Ground0
Pettis
Melendez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pettis
Melendez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
12
78
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.7 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/34 fights
Chin rating based on
7/30 fights
Pettis
Melendez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
72
0
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Pettis
Melendez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pettis
Melendez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
3.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.4
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
PettisMelendez
Strike Zones
Pettis
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedMelendez
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pettis targets the head (93% of attacks) — Melendez absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Melendez targets the head (50% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pettis
RND
Melendez
0/0R00/0
Pettis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Melendez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Pettis · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · Dec · R3
Donald CerroneRating 4.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Sub · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8Submission
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Dec · R3
Nate DiazRating 5.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
W · KO · R2
Stephen ThompsonRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
Melendez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 6.9Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Jeremy StephensRating 6Decision
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 6Decision
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Eddie AlvarezRating 5.5Decision
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Anthony PettisRating 2.1Submission
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · 2014-12