METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
Las Vegas, USA
13 Dec 2025
Featherweight
VS
51%
Costa
49%
Charriere
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:14
CFR 56
★ Official Result
Melquizael CostawinsKO/TKOR1 · 1:14
def. Morgan Charriere · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Costa
→
Actual result
Costa wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Costa at 51% vs Charriere at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Charriere has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Risk flags
Costa's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CostaCharriere
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Costa
Charriere
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
69"
29+
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Costa
Charriere
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.4
56.2
53.2
Performance Avg
50.1
42
Quality of Victory
55
84
Momentum Score
52
Costa
Charriere
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.3
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
6.1
Style: Pressure
8.3
4.8
Style: Volume
0.9
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
1
Body
0
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Costa
Charriere
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.3
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.9
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
2
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Costa
Charriere
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
72
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/34 fights
Chin rating based on
7/33 fights
Costa
Charriere
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
52
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Costa
Charriere
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Costa
Charriere
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
CostaCharriere
Strike Zones
Costa
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedCharriere
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Costa targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Charriere absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Charriere targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Costa
RND
Charriere
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Costa · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Arnold AllenDecision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Dan IgeKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Morgan CharriereKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Julian ErosaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Christian RodriguezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
Charriere · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Felipe LimaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · 2026-09
L · KO · R1
Melquizael CostaKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · KO · R3
Nate LandwehrKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodDecision
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W · KO · R2
Gabriel MirandaKO/TKO
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