UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape
Las Vegas, USA
13 Dec 2025
Featherweight
VS
50%
Costa
50%
Charriere
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:14
Melquizael
Melquizael Costa
"The Dalmatian"
26 – 8
5'10"71" reachSouthpaw29 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 59
Morgan
Morgan Charriere
"The Last Pirate"
21 – 12
Knockout Artist30 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'8"
CFR 59

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Costa

This is a genuine toss-up — Costa at 50% vs Charriere at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Charriere has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.

Costa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Costa's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Costa
Charriere
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
69"
29+
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Costa
Charriere
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.4
59.3
53.2
Performance Avg
53.0
42
Quality of Victory
55
84
Momentum Score
59
Costa
Charriere
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.1
47%
Strike Accuracy
43%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
1
Body
0
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Costa
Charriere
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Costa
Charriere
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
74
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/34 fights
Chin rating based on
6/33 fights
Costa
Charriere
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
59
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Costa
Charriere
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Costa
Charriere
Striking4.3 / 10.0Volume4.8 / 1.0Grappling3.3 / 0.0Wrestling2.3 / 0.0Submission2.9 / 0.0Pressure6.1 / 8.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
Costa
Strike Zones
Charriere
Costa
Attacking
1HEAD1BODY2LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY2LEGS2 absorbed
Charriere
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY2LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD1BODY2LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Costa targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Charriere absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Charriere targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Costa
RND
Charriere
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Costa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0103.0L4.5W4.6L5.8W5.7W5.1W4.7W6.2W5.7W6.9L2023-012024-062025-052026-05
WinLossTrend

Charriere · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.0W6.6L5.7W6.3L6.2W2.7L2023-092024-042024-092025-032025-072025-12
WinLossTrend

Costa · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Arnold AllenRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Dan IgeRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Morgan CharriereRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Julian ErosaRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Christian RodriguezRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03

Charriere · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Melquizael CostaRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · KO · R3
Nate LandwehrRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · KO · R2
Gabriel MirandaRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
L · Dec · R3
Chepe MariscalRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04

News & Media

Melquizael Costa · Morgan Charriere
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