METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Heavyweight
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
Mexico City, Mexico
13 Jun 2015
Heavyweight
VS
56%
Velasquez
44%
Werdum
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:13
★ Official Result
Fabricio WerdumwinsSubmissionR3 · 2:13
def. Cain Velasquez · UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Velasquez
→
Actual result
Werdum wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Velasquez at 56% vs Werdum at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Velasquez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Risk flags
Velasquez's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Werdum has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
VelasquezWerdum
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Velasquez
Werdum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
77"
Reach
77"
44+
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Velasquez
Werdum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.8
20.4
69.4
Performance Avg
57.8
62
Quality of Victory
52
100
Momentum Score
72
Velasquez
Werdum
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.9
/ 10
4.7
/ 10
8.2
Style: Pressure
6.7
2.9
Style: Volume
4.0
10 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
12
0
Body
0
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance8
5Clinch4
0Ground0
Velasquez
Werdum
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.4
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Velasquez
Werdum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
28
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/17 fights
Chin rating based on
18/33 fights
Velasquez
Werdum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
72
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
Velasquez
Werdum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
67%
10
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
4
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Velasquez
Werdum
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
0.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
VelasquezWerdum
Strike Zones
Velasquez
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedWerdum
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Velasquez targets the head (70% of attacks) — Werdum absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Werdum targets the head (100% of attacks) — Velasquez absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Velasquez
RND
Werdum
0/0R00/0
Velasquez · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Francis NgannouKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R1
Travis BrowneKO/TKO
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07
L · Sub · R3
Fabricio WerdumSubmission
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · KO · R5
Junior Dos SantosKO/TKO
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
W · KO · R1
Antonio SilvaKO/TKO
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · 2013-05
Werdum · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Alexander GustafssonSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei OleinikDecision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R4
Alexander VolkovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
W · Dec · R5
Marcin TyburaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
W · Sub · R1
Walt HarrisSubmission
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10