★ Championship Bout · Heavyweight
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
Mexico City, Mexico
13 Jun 2015
Heavyweight
VS
56%
Velasquez
44%
Werdum
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:13
CV
Cain Velasquez
14 – 3
6'1"77" reachOrthodox43 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 26
FW
Fabricio Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
24 – 9
Well-Rounded48 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'4"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Velasquez

This is a genuine toss-up — Velasquez at 56% vs Werdum at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Velasquez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Velasquez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Velasquez's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Werdum has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Velasquez
Werdum
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
77"
Reach
77"
43+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Velasquez
Werdum
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.8
20.4
69.4
Performance Avg
57.8
62
Quality of Victory
52
100
Momentum Score
72
Velasquez
Werdum
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.6
1.6
59%
Strike Accuracy
53%
9.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.7
10 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
12
0
Body
0
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance8
5Clinch4
0Ground0
Velasquez
Werdum
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Velasquez
Werdum
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
28
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/17 fights
Chin rating based on
18/33 fights
Velasquez
Werdum
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
72
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
Velasquez
Werdum
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
67%
10
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
4
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Velasquez
Werdum
Striking9.9 / 4.7Volume2.9 / 4.0Grappling0.4 / 3.5Wrestling0.3 / 2.4Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure8.2 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
0.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
Velasquez
Strike Zones
Werdum
Velasquez
Attacking
7HEAD0BODY3LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD0BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Werdum
Attacking
12HEAD0BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD0BODY3LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Velasquez targets the head (70% of attacks) — Werdum absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Werdum targets the head (100% of attacks) — Velasquez absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Velasquez
RND
Werdum
0/0R00/0

Velasquez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W5.0W5.2W4.5W5.2W5.0W5.0W1.5L5.0W4.5W5.0W5.5W2.8L5.0W1.9L2008-042009-102012-052015-062019-02
WinLossTrend

Werdum · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0106.2L5.2W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.1W4.5W5.1W5.2W2.6L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.9W4.6L5.5L5.0W2007-042012-062016-052018-032020-07
WinLossTrend

Velasquez · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Francis NgannouRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R1
Travis BrowneRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07
L · Sub · R3
Fabricio WerdumRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · KO · R5
Junior Dos SantosRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
W · KO · R1
Antonio SilvaRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · 2013-05

Werdum · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Alexander GustafssonRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei OleinikRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R4
Alexander VolkovRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Volkov · 2018-03
W · Dec · R5
Marcin TyburaRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
W · Sub · R1
Walt HarrisRating 5
Submission
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10

News & Media

Cain Velasquez · Fabricio Werdum
← Back to fights