UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo
Newark, USA
6 May 2023
Middleweight
VS
45%
Holmes
55%
Ribeiro
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:21
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ribeiro
This is a genuine toss-up — Holmes at 45% vs Ribeiro at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Holmes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Holmes's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ribeiro has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Holmes
Ribeiro
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'1"
80"+
Reach
77"
30+
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holmes
Ribeiro
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.0
42.8
42.4
Performance Avg
43.0
54
Quality of Victory
55
29
Momentum Score
43
Holmes
Ribeiro
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.8
56%
Strike Accuracy
48%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
16
0
Body
0
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
5Distance5
0Clinch1
0Ground12
Holmes
Ribeiro
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
8.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Holmes
Ribeiro
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
34
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/12 fights
Chin rating based on
4/16 fights
Holmes
Ribeiro
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
29
43
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
Holmes
Ribeiro
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holmes
Ribeiro
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
HolmesRibeiro
Strike Zones
Holmes
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedRibeiro
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holmes targets the legs (80% of attacks) — Ribeiro absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Ribeiro targets the head (89% of attacks) — Holmes absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holmes
RND
Ribeiro
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Holmes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Ribeiro · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Holmes · Last 4
L · KO · R2
Claudio RibeiroRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
L · Sub · R2
JunYong ParkRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
W · Sub · R1
Alen AmedovskiRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · 2022-05
L · Dec · R3
Jamie PickettRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
Ribeiro · Last 4
L · KO · R2
Christian Leroy DuncanRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Roman KopylovRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · KO · R2
Joseph HolmesRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
L · KO · R2
Abdul Razak AlhassanRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · 2023-01