UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba
Las Vegas, USA
20 Jul 2024
Flyweight
VS
42%
Durden
58%
Silva
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:58
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Silva
This is a genuine toss-up — Durden at 42% vs Silva at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Silva has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.
Silva has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Durden's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Silva has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Durden
Silva
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'4"
67"+
Reach
65"
35+
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Durden
Silva
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.8
52.5
38.8
Performance Avg
51.7
34
Quality of Victory
53
54
Momentum Score
39
Durden
Silva
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.3
45%
Strike Accuracy
49%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
18
0
Body
1
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance3
1Clinch0
0Ground17
Durden
Silva
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Durden
Silva
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
50
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/28 fights
Chin rating based on
12/23 fights
Durden
Silva
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
54
39
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R3
Durden
Silva
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
2
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Durden
Silva
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.0
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
3.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
DurdenSilva
Strike Zones
Durden
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedSilva
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Durden targets the head (100% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Silva targets the head (90% of attacks) — Durden absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Durden
RND
Silva
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Durden · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Silva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Durden · Last 5
Upcoming
Ode OsbourneUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Jafel FilhoRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Nyamjargal TumendemberelRating 6.6Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Sub · R2
Allan NascimentoRating 4.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · 2025-11
L · KO · R2
Jose OchoaRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
Silva · Last 5
Upcoming
Edgar ChairezUFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Dec · R3
Charles JohnsonRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
W · Sub · R3
HyunSung ParkRating 7.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R3
Joshua VanRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · KO · R3
Manel KapeRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12