UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
Vancouver, Canada
10 Jun 2023
Flyweight
VS
42%
Dvorak
58%
Erceg
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DD
David Dvorak
"Undertaker"
20 – 6
5'5"68" reachOrthodox33 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 33
Steve
Steve Erceg
"Astroboy"
14 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak30 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'8"
CFR 46

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Erceg

This is a genuine toss-up — Dvorak at 42% vs Erceg at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Dvorak throws more volume but Erceg connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Dvorak
Erceg
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'8"
68"
Reach
68"
33
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dvorak
Erceg
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
33.2
46.4
40.8
Performance Avg
43.6
35
Quality of Victory
31
43
Momentum Score
60
Dvorak
Erceg
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.3
45%
Strike Accuracy
50%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
9
3
Body
9
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
7Distance15
3Clinch5
0Ground0
Dvorak
Erceg
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dvorak
Erceg
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
74
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/26 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Dvorak
Erceg
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
60
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Dvorak
Erceg
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
20%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dvorak
Erceg
Striking1.0 / 3.3Volume6.3 / 7.7Grappling4.3 / 1.9Wrestling3.0 / 1.3Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure3.8 / 3.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.3
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.3
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.7
Dvorak
Strike Zones
Erceg
Dvorak
Attacking
6HEAD3BODY1LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD9BODY2LEGS20 absorbed
Erceg
Attacking
9HEAD9BODY2LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD3BODY1LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dvorak targets the head (60% of attacks) — Erceg absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Erceg targets the head (45% of attacks) — Dvorak absorbs 45% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dvorak
RND
Erceg
0/0R00/0

Dvorak · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.4W4.5W5.0W5.7L7.2L6.1L2020-032020-092021-052022-032022-122023-06
WinLossTrend

Erceg · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.9W5.4W6.8L2.4L6.4L5.3W4.6W2023-062024-032024-082025-082026-05
WinLossTrend

Dvorak · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06
L · Dec · R3
Manel KapeRating 7.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Matheus NicolauRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
W · Sub · R1
Juancamilo RonderosRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Jordan EspinosaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09

Erceg · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Tim ElliottRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Ode OsbourneRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Brandon MorenoRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Kai Kara-FranceRating 2.4
KO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Alexandre PantojaRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

News & Media

David Dvorak · Steve Erceg
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