METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
Vancouver, Canada
10 Jun 2023
Flyweight
VS
45%
Dvorak
55%
Erceg
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Steve ErcegwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. David Dvorak · UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Erceg
→
Actual result
Erceg wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Dvorak at 45% vs Erceg at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Erceg has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DvorakErceg
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Dvorak
Erceg
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'8"
68"
Reach
68"
34
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dvorak
Erceg
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
33.2
40.1
40.8
Performance Avg
40.8
35
Quality of Victory
31
43
Momentum Score
45
Dvorak
Erceg
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
/ 10
3.1
/ 10
3.8
Style: Pressure
3.1
6.3
Style: Volume
7.5
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
9
3
Body
9
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
7Distance15
3Clinch5
0Ground0
Dvorak
Erceg
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.3
/ 10
1.9
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Dvorak
Erceg
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
52
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/26 fights
Chin rating based on
9/18 fights
Dvorak
Erceg
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
45
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
Dvorak
Erceg
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
20%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dvorak
Erceg
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.1
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.5
DvorakErceg
Strike Zones
Dvorak
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedErceg
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dvorak targets the head (60% of attacks) — Erceg absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Erceg targets the head (45% of attacks) — Dvorak absorbs 45% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dvorak
RND
Erceg
0/0R00/0
Dvorak · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Steve ErcegDecision
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06
L · Dec · R3
Manel KapeDecision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Matheus NicolauDecision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · 2022-03
W · Sub · R1
Juancamilo RonderosSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · 2021-05
W · Dec · R3
Jordan EspinosaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
Erceg · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Ramazan TemirovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
Tim ElliottDecision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Ode OsbourneDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Brandon MorenoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Kai Kara-FranceKO/TKO
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08