UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
17 Oct 2020
Light Heavyweight
VS
56%
Crute
44%
Bukauskas
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:01
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Crute
This is a genuine toss-up — Crute at 56% vs Bukauskas at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Crute has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Crute has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Crute's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Bukauskas has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Crute
Bukauskas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
74"
Reach
+76"
30+
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Crute
Bukauskas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.0
51.5
56.7
Performance Avg
49.0
55
Quality of Victory
41
91
Momentum Score
81
Crute
Bukauskas
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.4
51%
Strike Accuracy
43%
4.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
2
1
Body
2
8
Leg
3
RangeRange
14Distance7
1Clinch0
2Ground0
Crute
Bukauskas
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.4
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Crute
Bukauskas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
10
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/18 fights
Chin rating based on
13/27 fights
Crute
Bukauskas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
81
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Upcoming
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Crute
Bukauskas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
4
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Crute
Bukauskas
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
6.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
8.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
1.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.2
CruteBukauskas
Strike Zones
Crute
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedBukauskas
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Crute targets the head (47% of attacks) — Bukauskas absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Bukauskas targets the legs (43% of attacks) — Crute absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Crute
RND
Bukauskas
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Crute · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Bukauskas · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Crute · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Ivan ErslanRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Marcin PrachnioRating 5.4Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
Upcoming
Rodolfo BellatoDecision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
L · Sub · R2
Alonzo MenifieldRating 3.6Submission
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
Upcoming
Alonzo MenifieldDecision
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
Bukauskas · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Christian EdwardsRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · KO · R3
Nikita KrylovRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Paul CraigRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Ion CutelabaRating 4.8Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Rafael CerqueiraRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02