UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar
Las Vegas, USA
22 Aug 2020
Welterweight
VS
6%
Minus
94%
Semelsberger
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CM
Carlton Minus
"Clutch"
10 – 3
5'10"75" reachOrthodox33 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 3
Matthew
Matthew Semelsberger
"Semi The Jedi"
11 – 8
Well-Rounded4-fight slide33 yrsSwitch75" reach6'1"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Semelsberger

Semelsberger is a strong favourite at 94% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Semelsberger has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 39 points.

Striking split: Minus throws more volume but Semelsberger connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Semelsberger has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Minus
Semelsberger
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'1"
75"
Reach
75"
33
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Minus
Semelsberger
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.7
45.1
0.0
Performance Avg
41.6
0
Quality of Victory
39
0
Momentum Score
84
Minus
Semelsberger
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.2
41%
Strike Accuracy
43%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
30
Head
35
6
Body
3
6
Leg
8
RangeRange
41Distance40
1Clinch5
0Ground1
Minus
Semelsberger
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Minus
Semelsberger
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
48
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/13 fights
Chin rating based on
11/19 fights
Minus
Semelsberger
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
84
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Minus
Semelsberger
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
40%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Minus
Semelsberger
Striking0.0 / 4.9Volume0.0 / 5.7Grappling0.0 / 1.4Wrestling0.0 / 1.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.0 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Minus
Strike Zones
Semelsberger
Minus
Attacking
30HEAD6BODY6LEGS42 landed
Absorbing
35HEAD3BODY8LEGS46 absorbed
Semelsberger
Attacking
35HEAD3BODY8LEGS46 landed
Absorbing
30HEAD6BODY6LEGS42 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Minus targets the head (71% of attacks) — Semelsberger absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Semelsberger targets the head (76% of attacks) — Minus absorbs 76% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Minus
RND
Semelsberger
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Minus · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0106.0L5.7L2020-082020-12
WinLossTrend

Semelsberger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0104.5W5.0W6.9L5.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W6.9L5.8L5.5L2.7L2020-082021-092022-122024-012024-11
WinLossTrend

Minus · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Christos GiagosRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
L · Dec · R3
Matthew SemelsbergerRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar · 2020-08

Semelsberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Charles RadtkeRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Preston ParsonsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
L · KO · R3
Uros MedicRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12

News & Media

Carlton Minus · Matthew Semelsberger
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