★ Championship Bout · Featherweight
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
11 Jul 2020
Featherweight
VS
53%
Volkanovski
47%
Holloway
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
CFR 64
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Volkanovski
This is a genuine toss-up — Volkanovski at 53% vs Holloway at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Holloway throws more volume but Volkanovski connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Volkanovski's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holloway has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Volkanovski
Holloway
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'11"
71"+
Reach
69"
37
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Volkanovski
Holloway
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.0
56.2
59.8
Performance Avg
56.8
44
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
63
Volkanovski
Holloway
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
2.2
61%
Strike Accuracy
52%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
5 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
27
Head
13
0
Body
6
10
Leg
4
RangeRange
36Distance20
1Clinch3
0Ground0
Volkanovski
Holloway
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.9
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Volkanovski
Holloway
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/32 fights
Chin rating based on
33/36 fights
Volkanovski
Holloway
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
63
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Volkanovski
Holloway
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
52%
5
KO / TKO Wins
10
0
Submission Wins
2
10
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Volkanovski
Holloway
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
VolkanovskiHolloway
Strike Zones
Volkanovski
Attacking
37 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedHolloway
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
37 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Volkanovski targets the head (73% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Holloway targets the head (57% of attacks) — Volkanovski absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Volkanovski
RND
Holloway
0/0R00/0
Volkanovski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Holloway · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Volkanovski · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Diego LopesRating 5.8Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · Dec · R5
Diego LopesRating 5.8Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Ilia TopuriaRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Islam MakhachevRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · KO · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 6.8KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
Holloway · Last 5
Upcoming
Conor McGregorUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 5.8Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04