UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
Edmonton, Canada
9 Sept 2017
Featherweight
VS
87%
Stephens
13%
Melendez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jeremy
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29 – 23
5'9"71" reachOrthodox40 yrs7-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 45
GM
Gilbert Melendez
"El Nino"
22 – 8
Well-Rounded5-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'9"
CFR 7

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Stephens

Stephens is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Stephens has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 15 points.

Stephens has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Stephens's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Stephens
Melendez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
+73"
40+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stephens
Melendez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.0
7.0
41.1
Performance Avg
20.7
40
Quality of Victory
25
76
Momentum Score
0
Stephens
Melendez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.9
42%
Strike Accuracy
30%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.3
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
32
Head
6
8
Body
0
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
38Distance5
1Clinch1
8Ground0
Stephens
Melendez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stephens
Melendez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
78
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
36/52 fights
Chin rating based on
7/30 fights
Stephens
Melendez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
0
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Stephens
Melendez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Stephens
Melendez
Striking5.5 / 0.3Volume4.6 / 8.3Grappling1.1 / 2.4Wrestling0.8 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.5 / 0.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.3
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.4
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.3
Stephens
Strike Zones
Melendez
Stephens
Attacking
32HEAD8BODY7LEGS47 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Melendez
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
32HEAD8BODY7LEGS47 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Stephens targets the head (68% of attacks) — Melendez absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Melendez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Stephens
RND
Melendez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
0/0R20/0

Stephens · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.7W2.8L5.5L4.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W6.0L6.9L5.5W6.6L4.5W5.5L6.3L4.5W6.9W5.2W2.0L5.5L7.1L3.2L2.6L6.5L2.2L2007-052010-092014-062018-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Melendez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.5L4.5W2.1L5.5L6.0L6.0L6.9L2013-042014-122016-072019-07
WinLossTrend

Stephens · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10

Melendez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Arnold AllenRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Jeremy StephensRating 6
Decision
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2 · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 6
Decision
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Eddie AlvarezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Anthony PettisRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · 2014-12

News & Media

Jeremy Stephens · Gilbert Melendez
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