METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
The longest reach on the card against a light heavyweight on three wins in four whose chin rating has collapsed to ten.
There is a shared opponent here that says more than either composite rating. Modestas Bukauskas out-pointed Ion Cutelaba over three rounds in May 2025. Cutelaba submitted Oumar Sy in the first round in March. That is not a transitive proof of anything, but it is the most concrete line of comparison available, and it does not favour the man the model picks. Sy's case is built on frame and finishin…
Sy (12-2) was submitted by Ion Cutelaba in the first round in March, having knocked out Brendson Ribeiro in the first in September 2025. At 30 he holds 210.8cm of reach — the longest here — a 0.67 finish rate and an 86.0 chin rating, but a 55.5 momentum score reflecting two defeats in his last four.
Bukauskas (20-7) has won three of his last four, beating Christian Edwards on the cards in May and stopping Paul Craig in the first round in September 2025, with a third-round knockout loss to Nikita Krylov in January the exception. Thirteen recorded fights, an 81.0 momentum score, and a chin rating of 10.0.
Bukauskas' 10.0 chin rating against a fighter with 210.8cm of reach and a 6.47 pressure rating
Cutelaba lost a decision to Bukauskas in May 2025 and submitted Sy inside a round in March
A 5.23 to 3.87 volume gap that favours Bukauskas if this reaches the cards
Sy's 3.33 submission score against a man rated 1.25
Thirteen recorded fights for Bukauskas against five for Sy
Bukauskas beat the man who submitted Sy in March, and has the better recent record by any reading
Sy's own first-round submission loss shows he can be caught early; a 55.5 momentum score is not the profile of a reliable favourite
This Fight — Statistics
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown