METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
Las Vegas, USA
15 Jun 2024
Featherweight
VS
60%
Costa
40%
Nuerdanbieke
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:50
★ Official Result
Melquizael CostawinsSubmissionR3 · 1:50
def. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke · UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Costa
→
Actual result
Costa wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Costa holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Nuerdanbieke has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Costa throws more volume but Nuerdanbieke connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Costa's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nuerdanbieke has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CostaNuerdanbieke
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Costa
Nuerdanbieke
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
71"+
Reach
69"
29+
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Costa
Nuerdanbieke
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.4
40.0
53.2
Performance Avg
42.0
42
Quality of Victory
37
84
Momentum Score
51
Costa
Nuerdanbieke
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
0.8
47%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
2
3
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Costa
Nuerdanbieke
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Costa
Nuerdanbieke
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
64
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/34 fights
Chin rating based on
6/51 fights
Costa
Nuerdanbieke
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
51
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Costa
Nuerdanbieke
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Costa
Nuerdanbieke
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
2.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.8
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
CostaNuerdanbieke
Strike Zones
Costa
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedNuerdanbieke
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Costa targets the head (50% of attacks) — Nuerdanbieke absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Nuerdanbieke targets the head (100% of attacks) — Costa absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Costa
RND
Nuerdanbieke
0/0R00/0
Costa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Nuerdanbieke · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Costa · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Arnold AllenRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Dan IgeRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Morgan CharriereRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Kape · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Julian ErosaRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Christian RodriguezRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
Nuerdanbieke · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Melquizael CostaRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Steve GarciaRating 4.6KO/TKO
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
W · KO · R1
Darrick MinnerRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · 2022-11
W · Dec · R3
TJ BrownRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
W · Dec · R3
Sean SorianoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · 2021-11