UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis
Nashville, USA
23 Mar 2019
Heavyweight
VS
73%
Blaydes
27%
Willis
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Curtis
Curtis Blaydes
"Razor"
19 – 6
6'4"80" reachOrthodox35 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 54
JW
Justin Willis
"Big Pretty"
8 – 2
Well-Rounded38 yrsSouthpaw78" reach6'1"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Blaydes

Blaydes is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Blaydes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Blaydes's chin rating of 8 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Blaydes
Willis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'1"
80"+
Reach
78"
35+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Blaydes
Willis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.9
20.4
53.4
Performance Avg
52.2
42
Quality of Victory
34
81
Momentum Score
83
Blaydes
Willis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.4
56%
Strike Accuracy
54%
6.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
7 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
0
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Blaydes
Willis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.0
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
0.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Blaydes
Willis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
8
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/25 fights
Chin rating based on
5/10 fights
Blaydes
Willis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
83
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Blaydes
Willis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
25%
7
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Blaydes
Willis
Striking6.4 / 4.1Volume4.8 / 7.6Grappling1.0 / 1.8Wrestling0.7 / 1.3Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure5.6 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.6
Blaydes
Strike Zones
Willis
Blaydes
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY2LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Willis
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY2LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Blaydes targets the head (50% of attacks) — Willis absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Willis targets the head (100% of attacks) — Blaydes absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Blaydes
RND
Willis
0/0R00/0

Blaydes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2L5.2W4.5W4.2W4.5W5.5W1.9L4.5W5.2W5.1W5.8W3.3L5.6W5.5W7.4W2.7L7.0W3.9L4.8W7.5L2016-042018-062020-062023-042026-04
WinLossTrend

Willis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W6.4L2017-072017-122018-042018-122019-03
WinLossTrend

Blaydes · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Josh HokitRating 7.5
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · Dec · R3
Rizvan KunievRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Tom AspinallRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · KO · R2
Jailton AlmeidaRating 7
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R1
Sergei PavlovichRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs. Blaydes · 2023-04

Willis · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Curtis BlaydesRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Mark HuntRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Chase ShermanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · KO · R1
Allen CrowderRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
W · Dec · R3
James MulheronRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07

News & Media

Curtis Blaydes · Justin Willis
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