UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2
Miami, USA
8 Apr 2023
Women's Strawweight
VS
43%
Waterson-Gomez
57%
Pinheiro
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Michelle
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
18 – 13
5'3"62" reachOrthodox40 yrs5-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 27
Luana
Luana Pinheiro
11 – 5
Well-Rounded4-fight slide33 yrsOrthodox62" reach5'2"
CFR 36

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pinheiro

This is a genuine toss-up — Waterson-Gomez at 43% vs Pinheiro at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Waterson-Gomez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Waterson-Gomez's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Pinheiro has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Waterson-Gomez
Pinheiro
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"+
Height
5'2"
62"
Reach
62"
40
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Waterson-Gomez
Pinheiro
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.5
35.6
36.8
Performance Avg
33.1
35
Quality of Victory
27
0
Momentum Score
49
Waterson-Gomez
Pinheiro
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.1
50%
Strike Accuracy
41%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
2
8
Body
6
10
Leg
2
RangeRange
15Distance9
7Clinch1
0Ground0
Waterson-Gomez
Pinheiro
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Waterson-Gomez
Pinheiro
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/31 fights
Chin rating based on
7/16 fights
Waterson-Gomez
Pinheiro
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
49
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Waterson-Gomez
Pinheiro
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Waterson-Gomez
Pinheiro
Striking0.8 / 0.9Volume6.1 / 6.2Grappling4.3 / 1.6Wrestling3.0 / 1.1Submission3.3 / 0.0Pressure3.5 / 1.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
Waterson-Gomez
Strike Zones
Pinheiro
Waterson-Gomez
Attacking
4HEAD8BODY10LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD6BODY2LEGS10 absorbed
Pinheiro
Attacking
2HEAD6BODY2LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD8BODY10LEGS22 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Waterson-Gomez targets the legs (45% of attacks) — Pinheiro absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Pinheiro targets the body (60% of attacks) — Waterson-Gomez absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Waterson-Gomez
RND
Pinheiro
0/0R00/0

Waterson-Gomez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.5W5.0W4.2L6.2L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.8L4.6W6.2L3.8L5.5L3.4L6.7L2015-072018-042020-052023-042024-06
WinLossTrend

Pinheiro · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.0W5.2W4.5W4.1L2.8L6.7L6.2L2021-052023-042024-052025-05
WinLossTrend

Waterson-Gomez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
L · KO · R2
Marina RodriguezRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Luana PinheiroRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Sub · R2
Amanda LemosRating 3.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Marina RodriguezRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05

Pinheiro · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tecia PenningtonRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Gillian RobertsonRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Sub · R2
Angela HillRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Amanda RibasRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Michelle Waterson-GomezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04

News & Media

Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Luana Pinheiro
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