UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
Las Vegas, USA
29 Oct 2011
Heavyweight
VS
50%
Filipovic
50%
Nelson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 1:30
MF
Mirko Filipovic
"Cro Cop"
35 – 11
6'2"73" reachSouthpaw51 yrsStriker
CFR 19
RN
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
22 – 14
Knockout Artist49 yrsOrthodox73" reach6'0"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Filipovic

This is a genuine toss-up — Filipovic at 50% vs Nelson at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Nelson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Filipovic has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Filipovic's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nelson has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Filipovic
Nelson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
73"
Reach
73"
51
Age
+49
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Filipovic
Nelson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.5
18.5
48.5
Performance Avg
55.6
51
Quality of Victory
61
78
Momentum Score
26
Filipovic
Nelson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.0
48%
Strike Accuracy
40%
6.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
10
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch2
0Ground7
Filipovic
Nelson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
0.3
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.2
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Filipovic
Nelson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
60
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/46 fights
Chin rating based on
19/36 fights
Filipovic
Nelson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
26
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Filipovic
Nelson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
89%
3
KO / TKO Wins
8
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Filipovic
Nelson
Striking6.9 / 9.8Volume0.9 / 1.8Grappling1.6 / 0.3Wrestling1.1 / 0.2Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure7.0 / 7.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.8
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.3
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.2
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.8
Filipovic
Strike Zones
Nelson
Filipovic
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD0BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Nelson
Attacking
10HEAD0BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Filipovic targets the body (100% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Nelson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Filipovic absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Filipovic
RND
Nelson
0/0R00/0

Filipovic · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W1.5L5.5L5.0W4.0L4.2W5.5W4.0L4.0L4.0L5.2W2007-022009-062010-062011-102015-04
WinLossTrend

Nelson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5W5.5L5.0W5.0W5.0W6.6L5.5L5.0W2.1L5.5L5.5L4.5W6.7L5.2W6.8L2009-122012-022013-102016-022017-04
WinLossTrend

Filipovic · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Gabriel GonzagaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04
L · KO · R3
Roy NelsonRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · 2011-10
L · KO · R3
Brendan SchaubRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones · 2011-03
L · KO · R3
Frank MirRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · Sub · R3
Pat BarryRating 5.5
Submission
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin · 2010-06

Nelson · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis · 2017-04
W · KO · R2
Antonio SilvaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · 2016-09
L · Dec · R3
Derrick LewisRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Jared RosholtRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R5
Josh BarnettRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09

News & Media

Mirko Filipovic · Roy Nelson
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