METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
Los Angeles, USA
4 Aug 2012
Light Heavyweight
VS
48%
Machida
52%
Bader
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:32
★ Official Result
Lyoto MachidawinsKO/TKOR2 · 1:32
def. Ryan Bader · UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Bader
→
Actual result
Machida wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Machida at 48% vs Bader at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Bader throws more volume but Machida connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Machida's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Bader has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MachidaBader
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Machida
Bader
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
74"
Reach
74"
48
Age
+43
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Machida
Bader
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
20.1
53.8
Performance Avg
54.2
45
Quality of Victory
40
78
Momentum Score
100
Machida
Bader
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.0
1.1
54%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
7 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
1
0
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance1
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Machida
Bader
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Machida
Bader
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
10
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/32 fights
Chin rating based on
20/28 fights
Machida
Bader
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Machida
Bader
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
40%
7
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
9
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Machida
Bader
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
MachidaBader
Strike Zones
Machida
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedBader
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Machida targets the head (67% of attacks) — Bader absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Bader targets the head (100% of attacks) — Machida absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Machida
RND
Bader
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Machida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Bader · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Machida · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R5
Eryk AndersRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
Bader · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Ilir LatifiRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Phil DavisRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01