UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
Los Angeles, USA
4 Aug 2012
Light Heavyweight
VS
48%
Machida
52%
Bader
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:32
LM
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
24 – 8
6'1"74" reachSouthpaw47 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 19
RB
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
23 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak42 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'2"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Bader

This is a genuine toss-up — Machida at 48% vs Bader at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Bader throws more volume but Machida connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Machida's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Bader has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Machida
Bader
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
74"
Reach
74"
47
Age
+42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Machida
Bader
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.7
20.1
53.8
Performance Avg
54.2
45
Quality of Victory
40
78
Momentum Score
100
Machida
Bader
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.1
54%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.8
7 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
1
0
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance1
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Machida
Bader
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Machida
Bader
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
10
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/32 fights
Chin rating based on
20/28 fights
Machida
Bader
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Machida
Bader
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
40%
7
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Machida
Bader
Striking5.7 / 4.8Volume5.3 / 6.3Grappling1.7 / 2.0Wrestling1.2 / 1.4Submission0.6 / 0.7Pressure5.5 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.8
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Machida
Strike Zones
Bader
Machida
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY2LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Bader
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY2LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Machida targets the head (67% of attacks) — Bader absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Bader targets the head (100% of attacks) — Machida absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Machida
RND
Bader
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Machida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.0W5.1W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W3.9L5.2W4.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W6.3L5.0W2.1L2.8L1.8L5.3W5.2W2007-022009-052012-082014-122018-05
WinLossTrend

Bader · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0105.0W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W4.5L1.5L5.0W4.5W2.8L5.0W1.9L4.5W4.5W5.1W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.2W5.2W2008-122011-022013-012015-012016-11
WinLossTrend

Machida · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R5
Eryk AndersRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · 2017-10
L · KO · R3
Yoel RomeroRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · 2015-06
L · Sub · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1
Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04

Bader · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs. Nogueira · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Ilir LatifiRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett · 2016-09
L · KO · R1
Anthony JohnsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
W · Dec · R3
Phil DavisRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

News & Media

Lyoto Machida · Ryan Bader
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