Jack Hermansson vs Gregory Rodrigues — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira

Las Vegas, USA

28 Jun 2025

Middleweight

45%

Hermansson

55%

Rodrigues

Win Probability

KO/TKO

Round 1 · 4:21

Jack Hermansson

"The Joker"

24 – 10

6'1"77" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 54

Gregory Rodrigues

"Robocop"

19 – 6

Striker4-fight win streak34 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'3"

CFR 66

★ Official Result

Gregory RodrigueswinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:21

def. Jack Hermansson · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Rodrigues

→

Actual result

Rodrigues wins

KO/TKO · R1

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Hermansson at 45% vs Rodrigues at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Hermansson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rodrigues has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

HermanssonRodrigues

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Hermansson

Rodrigues

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'1"

Height

+6'3"

77"+

Reach

75"

Age

+34

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Hermansson

Rodrigues

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

53.8

65.6

48.1

Performance Avg

58.7

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

100

Hermansson

Rodrigues

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.9

/ 10

7.9

/ 10

5.6

Style: Pressure

6.8

4.8

Style: Volume

4.5

3 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

7 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

30Distance18

0Clinch0

0Ground0

Hermansson

Rodrigues

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.3

/ 10

0.9

/ 10

2.3

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.6

2.7

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Hermansson

Rodrigues

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

2 consec. KOs

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.4 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R2.5 stoppage

Most recent fight

Last KO loss

4 fights ago

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

19/34 fights

Chin rating based on

14/25 fights

Hermansson

Rodrigues

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

2-fight 📉 slide

Current form

4-fight 🔥 win streak

L · KO · R1

W · Dec · R5

L · KO · R2

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

W · Dec · R5

W · KO · R1

W · Dec · R3

W · KO · R1

L · KO · R4

Hermansson

Rodrigues

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

55%

64%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hermansson

Rodrigues

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.9

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

7.9

3.3

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

0.9

2.3

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.6

2.7

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

5.6

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

6.8

4.8

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

4.5

Hermansson

Strike Zones

Rodrigues

Hermansson

Attacking

30 landed

Absorbing

18 absorbed

Rodrigues

Attacking

18 landed

Absorbing

30 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Hermansson targets the head (80% of attacks) — Rodrigues absorbs 80% of strikes there

🎯Rodrigues targets the head (61% of attacks) — Hermansson absorbs 61% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hermansson

RND

Rodrigues

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Hermansson · Last 5

L · KO · R1

Myktybek Orolbai

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11

L · KO · R1

Gregory Rodrigues

KO/TKO

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06

W · Dec · R5

Joe Pyfer

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02

L · KO · R2

Roman Dolidze

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12

W · Dec · R3

Chris Curtis

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07

Rodrigues · Last 5

W · Dec · R5

Anthony Hernandez

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · 2026-08

W · KO · R1

Brunno Ferreira

KO/TKO

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03

W · Dec · R3

Roman Kopylov

Decision

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11

W · KO · R1

Jack Hermansson

KO/TKO

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06

L · KO · R4

Jared Cannonier

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02

News & Media

Jack Hermansson · Gregory Rodrigues

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