UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira
Las Vegas, USA
28 Jun 2025
Middleweight
VS
45%
Hermansson
55%
Rodrigues
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:21
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rodrigues
This is a genuine toss-up — Hermansson at 45% vs Rodrigues at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rodrigues has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Hermansson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rodrigues has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Hermansson
Rodrigues
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
77"+
Reach
75"
37
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Hermansson
Rodrigues
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.8
66.6
48.1
Performance Avg
59.3
42
Quality of Victory
48
97
Momentum Score
100
Hermansson
Rodrigues
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
2.2
50%
Strike Accuracy
52%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
11
2
Body
6
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
30Distance18
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Hermansson
Rodrigues
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.7
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hermansson
Rodrigues
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/34 fights
Chin rating based on
13/25 fights
Hermansson
Rodrigues
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
97
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R4
W · Dec · R3
Hermansson
Rodrigues
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
70%
3
KO / TKO Wins
7
3
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hermansson
Rodrigues
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.5
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.7
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.5
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.2
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
HermanssonRodrigues
Strike Zones
Hermansson
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedRodrigues
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hermansson targets the head (80% of attacks) — Rodrigues absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Rodrigues targets the head (61% of attacks) — Hermansson absorbs 61% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hermansson
RND
Rodrigues
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Hermansson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Rodrigues · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Hermansson · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Myktybek OrolbaiRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · KO · R1
Gregory RodriguesRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Joe PyferRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Roman DolidzeRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
Rodrigues · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Brunno FerreiraRating 6.6KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Roman KopylovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Jack HermanssonRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · KO · R4
Jared CannonierRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Christian Leroy DuncanRating 6Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07