UFC 91: Couture vs Lesnar
Las Vegas, USA
15 Nov 2008
Lightweight
VS
48%
Riley
52%
Gurgel
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AR
Aaron Riley
30 – 14
5'8"69" reachSouthpaw45 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 11
JG
Jorge Gurgel
14 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide49 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'7"
CFR 13

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gurgel

This is a genuine toss-up — Riley at 48% vs Gurgel at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Riley has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Riley's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Riley
Gurgel
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'7"
69"
Reach
69"
45+
Age
49
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Riley
Gurgel
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
11.4
12.5
28.3
Performance Avg
32.1
25
Quality of Victory
25
45
Momentum Score
45
Riley
Gurgel
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.9
32%
Strike Accuracy
28%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
7
9
Body
8
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
16Distance12
15Clinch4
2Ground0
Riley
Gurgel
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Riley
Gurgel
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
82
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/44 fights
Chin rating based on
7/24 fights
Riley
Gurgel
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Riley
Gurgel
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Riley
Gurgel
Striking0.7 / 0.9Volume8.7 / 8.9Grappling2.4 / 2.4Wrestling1.7 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.0 / 1.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.9
Riley
Strike Zones
Gurgel
Riley
Attacking
23HEAD9BODY1LEGS33 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD8BODY1LEGS16 absorbed
Gurgel
Attacking
7HEAD8BODY1LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD9BODY1LEGS33 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Riley targets the head (70% of attacks) — Gurgel absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Gurgel targets the body (50% of attacks) — Riley absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Riley
RND
Gurgel
0/0R00/0

Riley · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.8L4.0L4.5W1.5L4.5W4.8L4.5W4.5L5.5L2002-052009-032010-052013-07
WinLossTrend

Gurgel · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W4.0L5.5L2006-062007-072008-032008-11
WinLossTrend

Riley · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Justin SalasRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · R1
Tony FergusonRating 4.5
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Joe BrammerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05
L · R2
Ross PearsonRating 4.8
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
W · Dec · R3
Shane NelsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08

Gurgel · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Aaron RileyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 91: Couture vs Lesnar · 2008-11
L · Sub · R3
Cole MillerRating 4
Submission
UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin · 2008-07
W · Dec · R3
John HalversonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 82: Pride of a Champion · 2008-03
L · Dec · R3
Alvin RobinsonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 77: Hostile Territory · 2007-10
W · Dec · R3
Diego SaraivaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 73: Stacked · 2007-07

News & Media

Aaron Riley · Jorge Gurgel
← Back to fights