UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson
Portland, USA
1 Oct 2016
Welterweight
VS
23%
Nakamura
77%
Santos
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
KN
Keita Nakamura
"K-Taro"
34 – 10
5'11"73" reachSouthpaw42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 14
Elizeu
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
"Capoeira"
25 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'11"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Santos

Santos is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Santos has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Santos has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nakamura
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
73"
Reach
73"
42
Age
+39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nakamura
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.7
45.3
36.2
Performance Avg
49.3
36
Quality of Victory
39
26
Momentum Score
45
Nakamura
Santos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.7
37%
Strike Accuracy
44%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
8
2
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance6
1Clinch0
0Ground3
Nakamura
Santos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nakamura
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
28
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/44 fights
Chin rating based on
18/35 fights
Nakamura
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
45
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Nakamura
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
46%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nakamura
Santos
Striking0.7 / 4.9Volume4.7 / 5.7Grappling5.2 / 2.0Wrestling3.6 / 1.4Submission5.0 / 0.9Pressure4.6 / 5.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Nakamura
Strike Zones
Santos
Nakamura
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD0BODY1LEGS9 absorbed
Santos
Attacking
8HEAD0BODY1LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nakamura targets the head (67% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the head (89% of attacks) — Nakamura absorbs 89% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nakamura
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0

Nakamura · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.5L5.5L6.3W5.5L5.2W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L2006-122015-092016-102018-122019-04
WinLossTrend

Santos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.8L5.5W4.5W4.5W5.1W6.1W5.2W5.0W4.8L4.5W6.5L6.3W4.5W6.4L5.0W3.9L3.4L2015-052018-052020-072025-032025-08
WinLossTrend

Nakamura · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sultan AlievRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
W · Dec · R3
Salim TouahriRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10

Santos · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Neil MagnyRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
L · KO · R2
Chidi NjokuaniRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · KO · R1
Zachary ScrogginRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Upcoming
Rinat Fakhretdinov
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11

News & Media

Keita Nakamura · Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
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