METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson
Portland, USA
1 Oct 2016
Welterweight
VS
23%
Nakamura
77%
Santos
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
CFR 45
★ Official Result
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantoswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Keita Nakamura · UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Santos
→
Actual result
Santos wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Santos is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Santos has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Santos has a chin rating of 28 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NakamuraSantos
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nakamura
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
73"
Reach
73"
42
Age
+39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nakamura
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.7
45.3
36.2
Performance Avg
49.3
36
Quality of Victory
39
26
Momentum Score
45
Nakamura
Santos
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
1.7
37%
Strike Accuracy
44%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
8
2
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance6
1Clinch0
0Ground3
Nakamura
Santos
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nakamura
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
28
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/44 fights
Chin rating based on
18/35 fights
Nakamura
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
45
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Nakamura
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
46%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nakamura
Santos
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.1
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
NakamuraSantos
Strike Zones
Nakamura
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedSantos
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nakamura targets the head (67% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the head (89% of attacks) — Nakamura absorbs 89% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nakamura
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0
Nakamura · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Nakamura · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sultan AlievRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
W · Dec · R3
Salim TouahriRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
L · Dec · R3
Elizeu Zaleski dos SantosRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · 2016-10
Santos · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Neil MagnyRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
L · KO · R2
Chidi NjokuaniRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · KO · R1
Zachary ScrogginRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 6.4Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Upcoming
Rinat FakhretdinovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11