UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
1 Aug 2015
Middleweight
VS
59%
Miranda
41%
Hester
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:38
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Miranda
This is a genuine toss-up — Miranda at 59% vs Hester at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Miranda has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Striking split: Hester throws more volume but Miranda connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Hester has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Miranda
Hester
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
77"
Reach
77"
47
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Miranda
Hester
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.3
15.3
51.1
Performance Avg
42.0
57
Quality of Victory
32
78
Momentum Score
61
Miranda
Hester
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.7
51%
Strike Accuracy
42%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
34
Head
6
0
Body
1
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance7
0Clinch0
31Ground0
Miranda
Hester
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Miranda
Hester
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
92
44
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/17 fights
Chin rating based on
7/17 fights
Miranda
Hester
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
61
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Miranda
Hester
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
25%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Miranda
Hester
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
0.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
MirandaHester
Strike Zones
Miranda
Attacking
38 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedHester
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
38 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Miranda targets the head (89% of attacks) — Hester absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Hester targets the head (86% of attacks) — Miranda absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Miranda
RND
Hester
0/0R00/0
Miranda · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Hester · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Miranda · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Abu AzaitarRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · 2018-07
L · Dec · R3
Marvin VettoriRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · KO · R2
Marcelo GuimaraesRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · 2016-03
W · KO · R2
Clint HesterRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · 2015-08
Hester · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 2.1Submission
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
L · KO · R2
Vitor MirandaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · 2015-08
L · KO · R2
Robert WhittakerRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bisping · 2014-11
W · Dec · R3
Antonio Braga NetoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
Andy EnzRating 4.5Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02