UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Inglewood, USA
18 Jan 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
53%
Prochazka
47%
Hill
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:01
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Prochazka
This is a genuine toss-up — Prochazka at 53% vs Hill at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Prochazka has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Prochazka's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hill has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Prochazka
Hill
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
+6'4"
80"+
Reach
79"
33+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Prochazka
Hill
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
68.4
60.4
60.9
Performance Avg
54.2
57
Quality of Victory
50
98
Momentum Score
92
Prochazka
Hill
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.7
64%
Strike Accuracy
51%
9.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.9
5 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
34
Head
13
7
Body
7
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
21Distance13
6Clinch7
16Ground0
Prochazka
Hill
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Prochazka
Hill
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
32
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/38 fights
Chin rating based on
11/16 fights
Prochazka
Hill
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
98
92
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R4
Prochazka
Hill
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
67%
5
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Prochazka
Hill
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.9
1.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
0.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
1.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
ProchazkaHill
Strike Zones
Prochazka
Attacking
43 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedHill
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
43 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Prochazka targets the head (79% of attacks) — Hill absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Hill targets the head (65% of attacks) — Prochazka absorbs 65% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Prochazka
RND
Hill
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Prochazka · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Hill · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Prochazka · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Carlos UlbergRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · KO · R3
Jamahal HillRating 6.8KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
L · KO · R2
Alex PereiraRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
Hill · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
L · KO · R3
Jiri ProchazkaRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
L · KO · R1
Alex PereiraRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · Dec · R5
Glover TeixeiraRating 4.9Decision
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
W · KO · R4
Thiago SantosRating 5.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08