UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
Las Vegas, USA
7 Jul 2016
Bantamweight
VS
85%
Birchak
15%
Lopes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Birchak
Birchak is a strong favourite at 85% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Birchak has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 43 points.
Birchak has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Birchak's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Birchak
Lopes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'5"
69"
Reach
40+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
—
Birchak
Lopes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.8
2.7
38.8
Performance Avg
0.0
43
Quality of Victory
0
53
Momentum Score
0
Birchak
Lopes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
0.6
34%
Strike Accuracy
26%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
12
7
Body
0
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
14Distance11
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Birchak
Lopes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Birchak
Lopes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/24 fights
Chin rating based on
2/22 fights
Birchak
Lopes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Birchak
Lopes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Birchak
Lopes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
BirchakLopes
Strike Zones
Birchak
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedLopes
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Birchak targets the body (47% of attacks) — Lopes absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Lopes targets the head (92% of attacks) — Birchak absorbs 92% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Birchak
RND
Lopes
0/0R00/0
Birchak · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.8WinLossTrend
Lopes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Birchak · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Tony GravelyRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Gustavo LopezRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira · 2020-11
W · Dec · R3
Dileno LopesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
L · KO · R1
Thomas AlmeidaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
W · KO · R1
Joe SotoRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
Lopes · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Anthony BirchakRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
L · Dec · R3
Reginaldo VieiraRating 5.5Decision
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · 2015-08