UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
Anaheim, USA
23 Oct 2010
Lightweight
VS
48%
Stout
52%
Taylor
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Taylor
This is a genuine toss-up — Stout at 48% vs Taylor at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Stout throws more volume but Taylor connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Stout's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Stout
Taylor
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'0"
70"
Reach
+72"
42+
Age
46
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Stout
Taylor
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.3
13.4
35.3
Performance Avg
41.0
29
Quality of Victory
39
60
Momentum Score
10
Stout
Taylor
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.4
28%
Strike Accuracy
47%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
37
6
Body
10
13
Leg
5
RangeRange
39Distance48
0Clinch4
0Ground0
Stout
Taylor
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stout
Taylor
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
80
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/32 fights
Chin rating based on
9/17 fights
Stout
Taylor
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
10
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Stout
Taylor
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
11%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Stout
Taylor
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.9
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
8.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
StoutTaylor
Strike Zones
Stout
Attacking
39 landedAbsorbing
52 absorbedTaylor
Attacking
52 landedAbsorbing
39 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Stout targets the head (51% of attacks) — Taylor absorbs 51% of strikes there
🎯Taylor targets the head (71% of attacks) — Stout absorbs 71% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Stout
RND
Taylor
0/0R00/0
Stout · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Taylor · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Stout · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Frankie PerezRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · 2015-08
L · KO · R2
Ross PearsonRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · 2015-03
L · KO · R1
KJ NoonsRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy · 2014-04
W · Dec · R3
Cody McKenzieRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · 2013-12
L · Sub · R3
James KrauseRating 4Submission
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · 2013-06
Taylor · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Gabe RuedigerRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort · 2011-02
L · Dec · R3
Sam StoutRating 5.5Decision
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez · 2010-10
L · Dec · R3
John HathawayRating 5.5Decision
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
W · Dec · R3
Peter SobottaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 99: The Comeback · 2009-06
L · Dec · R3
Chris LytleRating 5.5Decision
UFC 89: Bisping vs Leben · 2008-10