UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio
Buenos Aires, Argentina
17 Nov 2018
Flyweight
VS
77%
Pantoja
23%
Sasaki
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:18
Alexandre
Alexandre Pantoja
"The Cannibal"
30 – 6
5'5"67" reachOrthodox36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 61
YS
Yuta Sasaki
"Ulka"
21 – 6
Submission Hunter36 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'10"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pantoja

Pantoja is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Pantoja has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Sasaki has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Pantoja
Sasaki
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'10"
67"
Reach
+71"
36
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Pantoja
Sasaki
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
60.7
17.8
60.2
Performance Avg
48.2
49
Quality of Victory
51
65
Momentum Score
46
Pantoja
Sasaki
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.2
49%
Strike Accuracy
43%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
6
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground4
Pantoja
Sasaki
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
4.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
3.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pantoja
Sasaki
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
40
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/36 fights
Chin rating based on
9/27 fights
Pantoja
Sasaki
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
46
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Pantoja
Sasaki
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
57%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
6
Submission Wins
4
6
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pantoja
Sasaki
Striking3.0 / 0.9Volume5.0 / 0.9Grappling4.5 / 8.0Wrestling3.1 / 5.6Submission4.3 / 10.0Pressure6.3 / 8.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
4.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
3.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
Pantoja
Strike Zones
Sasaki
Pantoja
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Sasaki
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pantoja targets the head (75% of attacks) — Sasaki absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Sasaki targets the head (86% of attacks) — Pantoja absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pantoja
RND
Sasaki
0/0R00/0

Pantoja · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W5.5W5.5L5.4W5.0W5.0W6.6L5.2W5.5L6.2W6.0W6.3W5.4W5.3W5.1W5.1W6.1W3.1L2017-012019-042021-082024-122025-12
WinLossTrend

Sasaki · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.0W2.8L3.5L5.2W5.5L5.2W1.5L5.2W2.8L2014-082016-052017-092018-11
WinLossTrend

Pantoja · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Joshua VanRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Sub · R3
Kai Kara-FranceRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Sub · R2
Kai AsakuraRating 5.1
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R5
Steve ErcegRating 5.1
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R5
Brandon RoyvalRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

Sasaki · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Alexandre PantojaRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · 2018-11
W · Sub · R2
Jenel LausaRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards · 2018-06
L · Sub · R1
Jussier FormigaRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
W · Sub · R2
Justin ScogginsRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Correia · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Wilson ReisRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 208: Holm vs. De Randamie · 2017-02

News & Media

Alexandre Pantoja · Yuta Sasaki
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