UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
Toronto, Canada
10 Dec 2016
Welterweight
VS
40%
Cerrone
60%
Brown
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:34
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Brown
Brown holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Cerrone has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Cerrone throws more volume but Brown connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Cerrone's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brown has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Cerrone
Brown
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
73"
Reach
+75"
43+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cerrone
Brown
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.2
42.5
53.0
Performance Avg
54.0
47
Quality of Victory
52
63
Momentum Score
78
Cerrone
Brown
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.5
49%
Strike Accuracy
60%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.8
10 KOs
KO Finishes
13 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
1
0
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Cerrone
Brown
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cerrone
Brown
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
7
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
5
Avg R1.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
38/53 fights
Chin rating based on
30/45 fights
Cerrone
Brown
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
78
6-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Cerrone
Brown
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
88%
10
KO / TKO Wins
13
6
Submission Wins
2
7
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cerrone
Brown
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.8
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
2.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.2
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.9
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
CerroneBrown
Strike Zones
Cerrone
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedBrown
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cerrone targets the head (75% of attacks) — Brown absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Brown targets the head (50% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cerrone
RND
Brown
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Cerrone · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Brown · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Cerrone · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2Submission
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L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5KO/TKO
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Upcoming
Niko PriceUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
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L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 3.5KO/TKO
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Brown · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Court McGeeRating 5.2KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
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W · KO · R2
Dhiego LimaRating 5.2KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
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L · KO · R2
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