UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos
Minneapolis, USA
29 Jun 2019
Lightweight
VS
78%
Dober
22%
Reyes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:07
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dober
Dober is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Reyes throws more volume but Dober connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Dober's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Reyes has a chin rating of 12 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Dober
Reyes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
70"
Reach
+71"
37+
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Dober
Reyes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.9
16.8
53.2
Performance Avg
49.2
50
Quality of Victory
49
100
Momentum Score
50
Dober
Reyes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.9
43%
Strike Accuracy
35%
8.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.5
11 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
4
0
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
11Distance5
1Clinch0
4Ground0
Dober
Reyes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dober
Reyes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
12
KO risk
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
4
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/44 fights
Chin rating based on
8/15 fights
Dober
Reyes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
50
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Dober
Reyes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
75%
11
KO / TKO Wins
3
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dober
Reyes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.5
1.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
0.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
2.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
DoberReyes
Strike Zones
Dober
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedReyes
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dober targets the head (94% of attacks) — Reyes absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Reyes targets the head (80% of attacks) — Dober absorbs 80% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dober
RND
Reyes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Dober · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Reyes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Dober · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · KO · R3
Kyle PrepolecRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · R3
Jean SilvaRating 7.1UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Renato MoicanoRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02
Reyes · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Kyle NelsonRating 1.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09
L · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
L · KO · R2
Damir HadzovicRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · 2019-02
W · KO · R1
Matt FrevolaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · 2018-01
L · KO · R1
James VickRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05