UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
Anaheim, USA
22 Jan 2022
Bantamweight
VS
91%
Gravely
9%
Oliveira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gravely
Gravely is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 30 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gravely has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 41 points.
Striking split: Oliveira throws more volume but Gravely connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Gravely's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Oliveira has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gravely
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"+
Height
5'4"
69"
Reach
+72"
34+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gravely
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
33.2
3.4
44.8
Performance Avg
0.0
41
Quality of Victory
0
35
Momentum Score
0
Gravely
Oliveira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.4
44%
Strike Accuracy
39%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
8
0
Body
4
4
Leg
1
RangeRange
13Distance13
2Clinch0
6Ground0
Gravely
Oliveira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gravely
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
42
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/32 fights
Chin rating based on
4/25 fights
Gravely
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
35
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Gravely
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gravely
Oliveira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
GravelyOliveira
Strike Zones
Gravely
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedOliveira
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gravely targets the head (81% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the head (62% of attacks) — Gravely absorbs 62% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gravely
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0
Gravely · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Gravely · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Victor HenryRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
L · Dec · R3
Javid BasharatRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · 2022-09
W · KO · R1
Johnny MunozRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06
W · Dec · R3
Saimon OliveiraRating 4.5Decision
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · 2022-01
L · KO · R2
Nate ManessRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · 2021-09
Oliveira · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Luan LacerdaRating 3.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
David MartinezRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R2
Daniel MarcosRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · Dec · R3
Tony GravelyRating 5.5Decision
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · 2022-01