UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
Houston, USA
15 May 2021
Bantamweight
VS
64%
Schnell
36%
Bontorin
Win Probability
Matt
Matt Schnell
"Danger"
17 – 10
5'8"70" reachOrthodox36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 38
RB
Rogerio Bontorin
16 – 4
Well-Rounded3-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'5"
CFR 21

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Schnell

Schnell holds a meaningful edge at 64% per the CFR ratings — but Bontorin has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Schnell throws more volume but Bontorin connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Schnell's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Schnell
Bontorin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'5"
70"+
Reach
67"
36
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Schnell
Bontorin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.1
21.1
40.7
Performance Avg
32.5
37
Quality of Victory
28
45
Momentum Score
59
Schnell
Bontorin
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.1
41%
Strike Accuracy
52%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
26
5
Body
1
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
13Distance18
1Clinch1
0Ground12
Schnell
Bontorin
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
3.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Schnell
Bontorin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
74
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/27 fights
Chin rating based on
6/20 fights
Schnell
Bontorin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
59
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · R1
Schnell
Bontorin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Schnell
Bontorin
Striking0.9 / 0.8Volume5.5 / 4.8Grappling4.8 / 1.2Wrestling3.4 / 0.8Submission4.3 / 0.0Pressure4.4 / 1.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
4.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
3.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.2
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Schnell
Strike Zones
Bontorin
Schnell
Attacking
8HEAD5BODY1LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
26HEAD1BODY4LEGS31 absorbed
Bontorin
Attacking
26HEAD1BODY4LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD5BODY1LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Schnell targets the head (57% of attacks) — Bontorin absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Bontorin targets the head (84% of attacks) — Schnell absorbs 84% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Schnell
RND
Bontorin
0/0R00/0

Schnell · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0102.7L1.5L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W2.8L4.7W2.3L5.9W2.9L3.3L2.9L5.0W3.5L2016-122019-032022-052024-092025-11
WinLossTrend

Bontorin · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.0W5.5L2.4L6.3L2019-022019-082020-022021-032022-01
WinLossTrend

Schnell · Last 5

Upcoming
Imanol Rodriguez
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Sub · R1
Joseph MoralesRating 3.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jimmy FlickRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenRating 2.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R2
Steve ErcegRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03

Bontorin · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Brandon RoyvalRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
Upcoming
Matt Schnell
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · KO · R1
Kai Kara-FranceRating 2.4
KO/TKO
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · Dec · R3
Ray BorgRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
W · R1
Raulian PaivaRating 4
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08

News & Media

Matt Schnell · Rogerio Bontorin
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