UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson
Hidalgo, USA
17 Sept 2016
Bantamweight
VS
81%
Perez
19%
Morales
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Perez
Perez is a strong favourite at 81% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Perez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.
Perez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Perez's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Morales has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Perez
Morales
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
67"
Reach
+72"
36
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Perez
Morales
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.4
8.1
56.3
Performance Avg
23.0
49
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
15
Perez
Morales
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
1.4
40%
Strike Accuracy
34%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
29
Head
25
1
Body
4
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
23Distance27
4Clinch3
5Ground1
Perez
Morales
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Perez
Morales
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
62
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/32 fights
Chin rating based on
6/11 fights
Perez
Morales
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
15
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Perez
Morales
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Perez
Morales
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.4
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.6
5.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.4
PerezMorales
Strike Zones
Perez
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedMorales
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Perez targets the head (91% of attacks) — Morales absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Morales targets the head (81% of attacks) — Perez absorbs 81% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Perez
RND
Morales
0/0R00/0
Perez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Morales · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Perez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 6Decision
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W · Sub · R2
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L · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 5.5Decision
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W · Dec · R3
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Morales · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Manny BermudezRating 2.8Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Benito LopezRating 5.5Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Brett JohnsRating 5.5Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Andre SoukhamthathRating 4.5Decision
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L · KO · R2
Thomas AlmeidaRating 2.8KO/TKO
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