UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith
Moncton, Canada
27 Oct 2018
Light Heavyweight
VS
46%
Oezdemir
54%
Smith
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:26
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Smith
This is a genuine toss-up — Oezdemir at 46% vs Smith at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Oezdemir throws more volume but Smith connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Oezdemir's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Smith has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Oezdemir
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'4"
75"
Reach
+76"
36+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oezdemir
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.6
58.3
50.8
Performance Avg
50.7
47
Quality of Victory
50
52
Momentum Score
100
Oezdemir
Smith
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.3
48%
Strike Accuracy
52%
6.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
5 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
21
2
Body
6
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
12Distance23
8Clinch4
0Ground1
Oezdemir
Smith
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oezdemir
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
6
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/29 fights
Chin rating based on
25/60 fights
Oezdemir
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
100
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Oezdemir
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
77%
5
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
5
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oezdemir
Smith
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
3.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
OezdemirSmith
Strike Zones
Oezdemir
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedSmith
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oezdemir targets the head (65% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (75% of attacks) — Oezdemir absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oezdemir
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0
Oezdemir · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Oezdemir · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Alonzo MenifieldRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Carlos UlbergRating 7.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11
W · KO · R1
Johnny WalkerRating 5.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Bogdan GuskovRating 7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Nikita KrylovRating 6.7Decision
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · 2022-10
Smith · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Dominick ReyesRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.1Submission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12