UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady
London, United Kingdom
22 Mar 2025
Welterweight
VS
55%
Nelson
45%
Holland
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nelson
This is a genuine toss-up — Nelson at 55% vs Holland at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Holland throws more volume but Nelson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Nelson's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holland has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nelson
Holland
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
72"
Reach
+81"
37
Age
+33
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Nelson
Holland
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
56.8
47.0
52.8
Performance Avg
49.3
46
Quality of Victory
44
61
Momentum Score
51
Nelson
Holland
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.2
69%
Strike Accuracy
52%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
11
1
Body
6
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
0Distance3
4Clinch12
3Ground4
Nelson
Holland
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
4.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nelson
Holland
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
6
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/25 fights
Chin rating based on
29/44 fights
Nelson
Holland
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
51
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Nelson
Holland
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
69%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
8
Submission Wins
6
2
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nelson
Holland
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
6.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
4.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
8.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
NelsonHolland
Strike Zones
Nelson
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedHolland
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nelson targets the head (86% of attacks) — Holland absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Holland targets the head (58% of attacks) — Nelson absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nelson
RND
Holland
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Nelson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Holland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Nelson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Kevin HollandRating 6.1Decision
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W · Sub · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 5.4Submission
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L · Dec · R3
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UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · 2019-03
Holland · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 5.4Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Mike MalottRating 7.3Decision
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L · Dec · R3
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UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Vicente LuqueRating 6.7Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Gunnar NelsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03