UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
Las Vegas, USA
9 Jul 2016
Women's Bantamweight
VS
21%
Zingano
79%
Pena
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pena
Pena is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 48 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Pena throws more volume but Zingano connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Zingano's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pena has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Zingano
Pena
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
68"
Reach
+69"
43
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Zingano
Pena
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
65.6
49.1
Performance Avg
58.0
53
Quality of Victory
52
43
Momentum Score
100
Zingano
Pena
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.7
61%
Strike Accuracy
50%
7.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.8
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
6
0
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
1Ground9
Zingano
Pena
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
0.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Zingano
Pena
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
62
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/14 fights
Chin rating based on
12/19 fights
Zingano
Pena
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
100
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
Zingano
Pena
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Zingano
Pena
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.8
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
ZinganoPena
Strike Zones
Zingano
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedPena
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Zingano targets the head (100% of attacks) — Pena absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Pena targets the head (67% of attacks) — Zingano absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Zingano
RND
Pena
0/0R00/0
Zingano · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Pena · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Zingano · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Megan AndersonRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Marion ReneauRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
L · Dec · R3
Ketlen VieiraRating 5.9Decision
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
L · Dec · R3
Julianna PenaRating 7Decision
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07
L · Sub · R1
Ronda RouseyRating 1.5Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
Pena · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Kayla HarrisonRating 4.3Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Raquel PenningtonRating 5.1Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · Dec · R5
Amanda NunesRating 6.7Decision
UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · 2022-07
W · Sub · R2
Amanda NunesRating 6.3Submission
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · 2021-12
W · Sub · R3
Sara McMannRating 5.5Submission
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01