UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis
Nashville, USA
23 Mar 2019
Bantamweight
VS
79%
Vera
21%
Saenz
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:25
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Vera
Vera is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Vera has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Vera has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Saenz has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Vera
Saenz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
66"
33+
Age
45
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Vera
Saenz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.4
13.7
50.4
Performance Avg
35.0
46
Quality of Victory
25
39
Momentum Score
75
Vera
Saenz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.1
51%
Strike Accuracy
48%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
1
0
Body
1
5
Leg
2
RangeRange
7Distance4
0Clinch0
5Ground0
Vera
Saenz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.8
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
2.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Vera
Saenz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
30
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/35 fights
Chin rating based on
10/20 fights
Vera
Saenz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
75
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Vera
Saenz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
73%
0%
7
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Vera
Saenz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
VeraSaenz
Strike Zones
Vera
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedSaenz
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Vera targets the head (58% of attacks) — Saenz absorbs 58% of strikes there
🎯Saenz targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Vera absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Vera
RND
Saenz
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Vera · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.8WinLossTrend
Saenz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Vera · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
David MartinezRating 7.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Aiemann ZahabiRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Sean O'MalleyRating 7Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Pedro MunhozRating 5Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
Saenz · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · 2020-08
L · KO · R1
Marlon VeraRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Henry BrionesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
L · Dec · R3
Augusto MendesRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01