UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
Cleveland, USA
10 Sept 2016
Bantamweight
VS
57%
Faber
43%
Rivera
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Faber
This is a genuine toss-up — Faber at 57% vs Rivera at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Faber has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Rivera throws more volume but Faber connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Faber's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Faber
Rivera
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'4"
67"
Reach
+68"
47
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Faber
Rivera
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.8
15.8
49.4
Performance Avg
43.5
42
Quality of Victory
30
100
Momentum Score
58
Faber
Rivera
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.4
46%
Strike Accuracy
37%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
6
0
Body
6
2
Leg
7
RangeRange
5Distance19
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Faber
Rivera
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.1
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Faber
Rivera
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
72
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/46 fights
Chin rating based on
11/28 fights
Faber
Rivera
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
58
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Faber
Rivera
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
14%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Faber
Rivera
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
5.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.9
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
FaberRivera
Strike Zones
Faber
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedRivera
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Faber targets the head (60% of attacks) — Rivera absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Rivera targets the legs (37% of attacks) — Faber absorbs 37% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Faber
RND
Rivera
0/0R00/0
Faber · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Rivera · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Faber · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Petr YanRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · 2019-12
W · KO · R1
Ricky SimonRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · 2019-07
W · Dec · R3
Brad PickettRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · Dec · R3
Jimmie RiveraRating 5.5Decision
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · 2016-09
L · Dec · R5
Dominick CruzRating 5.5Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
Rivera · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Pedro MunhozRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · 2021-02
W · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige · 2020-07
L · Dec · R3
Petr YanRating 7Decision
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · 2019-06
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · Dec · R3
John DodsonRating 4.5Decision
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09