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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski
Brasilia, Brazil
13 Sept 2014
Welterweight
VS
58%
Thiago
42%
Spencer
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
PT
Paulo Thiago
18 – 9
5'11"74" reachOrthodox45 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
SS
Sean Spencer
"Black Magic"
12 – 6
Well-Rounded3-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"
CFR 10
★ Official Result
Sean SpencerwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Paulo Thiago · UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Thiago
→
Actual result
Spencer wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Thiago at 58% vs Spencer at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Thiago has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Risk flags

Thiago's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Spencer has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
ThiagoSpencer
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Thiago
Spencer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
74"
Reach
74"
45
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Thiago
Spencer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.5
9.8
37.5
Performance Avg
30.0
37
Quality of Victory
25
39
Momentum Score
25
Thiago
Spencer
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.8
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
4.0
Style: Pressure
1.1
5.6
Style: Volume
8.8
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
23
5
Body
10
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
24Distance32
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Thiago
Spencer
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Thiago
Spencer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
50
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/27 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Thiago
Spencer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
25
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Thiago
Spencer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Thiago
Spencer
Striking2.8 / 0.8Volume5.6 / 8.8Grappling3.0 / 2.4Wrestling2.1 / 1.7Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure4.0 / 1.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.1
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
Thiago
Strike Zones
Spencer
Thiago
Attacking
18HEAD5BODY1LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD10BODY1LEGS34 absorbed
Spencer
Attacking
23HEAD10BODY1LEGS34 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD5BODY1LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Thiago targets the head (75% of attacks) — Spencer absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Spencer targets the head (68% of attacks) — Thiago absorbs 68% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Thiago
RND
Spencer
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Thiago · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sean Spencer
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Gasan Umalatov
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado · 2014-05
L · KO · R1
Brandon Thatch
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11
W · Dec · R3
Michel Prazeres
Decision
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05
L · Dec · R3
Dong Hyun Kim
Decision
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · 2012-11

Spencer · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Yancy Medeiros
Submission
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · 2016-09
L · KO · R3
Mike Pyle
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R3
Cathal Pendred
Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Paulo Thiago
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Alex Garcia
Decision
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · 2014-03

News & Media

Paulo Thiago · Sean Spencer
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