METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski
Brasilia, Brazil
13 Sept 2014
Welterweight
VS
58%
Thiago
42%
Spencer
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Sean SpencerwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Paulo Thiago · UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Thiago
→
Actual result
Spencer wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Thiago at 58% vs Spencer at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Thiago has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Spencer has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Thiago's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Spencer has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ThiagoSpencer
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Thiago
Spencer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
74"
Reach
74"
45
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Thiago
Spencer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.5
9.8
37.5
Performance Avg
30.0
37
Quality of Victory
25
39
Momentum Score
25
Thiago
Spencer
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.7
1.8
35%
Strike Accuracy
38%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
23
5
Body
10
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
24Distance32
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Thiago
Spencer
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Thiago
Spencer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
50
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/27 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Thiago
Spencer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
25
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Thiago
Spencer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Thiago
Spencer
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.1
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
ThiagoSpencer
Strike Zones
Thiago
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedSpencer
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Thiago targets the head (75% of attacks) — Spencer absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Spencer targets the head (68% of attacks) — Thiago absorbs 68% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Thiago
RND
Spencer
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Thiago · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Spencer · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Thiago · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean SpencerRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Gasan UmalatovRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado · 2014-05
L · KO · R1
Brandon ThatchRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11
W · Dec · R3
Michel PrazeresRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05
L · Dec · R3
Dong Hyun KimRating 5.5Decision
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · 2012-11
Spencer · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Yancy MedeirosRating 2.8Submission
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · 2016-09
L · KO · R3
Mike PyleRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R3
Cathal PendredRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Paulo ThiagoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Alex GarciaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · 2014-03