UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski
Brasilia, Brazil
13 Sept 2014
Welterweight
VS
58%
Thiago
42%
Spencer
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
PT
Paulo Thiago
18 – 9
5'11"74" reachOrthodox45 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
SS
Sean Spencer
"Black Magic"
12 – 6
Well-Rounded3-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"
CFR 10

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Thiago

This is a genuine toss-up — Thiago at 58% vs Spencer at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Thiago has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Spencer has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Thiago's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Spencer has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Thiago
Spencer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
74"
Reach
74"
45
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Thiago
Spencer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.5
9.8
37.5
Performance Avg
30.0
37
Quality of Victory
25
39
Momentum Score
25
Thiago
Spencer
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.8
35%
Strike Accuracy
38%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
23
5
Body
10
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
24Distance32
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Thiago
Spencer
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Thiago
Spencer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
50
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/27 fights
Chin rating based on
8/18 fights
Thiago
Spencer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
25
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Thiago
Spencer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Thiago
Spencer
Striking2.8 / 0.8Volume5.6 / 8.8Grappling3.0 / 2.4Wrestling2.1 / 1.7Submission2.0 / 0.0Pressure4.0 / 1.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.1
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
Thiago
Strike Zones
Spencer
Thiago
Attacking
18HEAD5BODY1LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD10BODY1LEGS34 absorbed
Spencer
Attacking
23HEAD10BODY1LEGS34 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD5BODY1LEGS24 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Thiago targets the head (75% of attacks) — Spencer absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Spencer targets the head (68% of attacks) — Thiago absorbs 68% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Thiago
RND
Spencer
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Thiago · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.5L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.5L5.5L2009-022010-062012-112014-09
WinLossTrend

Spencer · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.0L4.5W5.7W5.5L4.5W5.5L4.0L2.8L2013-012013-112014-092016-022016-09
WinLossTrend

Thiago · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sean SpencerRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Gasan UmalatovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado · 2014-05
L · KO · R1
Brandon ThatchRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11
W · Dec · R3
Michel PrazeresRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05
L · Dec · R3
Dong Hyun KimRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · 2012-11

Spencer · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Yancy MedeirosRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · 2016-09
L · KO · R3
Mike PyleRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R3
Cathal PendredRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Paulo ThiagoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Alex GarciaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · 2014-03

News & Media

Paulo Thiago · Sean Spencer
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