UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland
Orlando, USA
3 Dec 2022
Heavyweight
VS
42%
Tuivasa
58%
Pavlovich
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:54
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pavlovich
This is a genuine toss-up — Tuivasa at 42% vs Pavlovich at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Pavlovich throws more volume but Tuivasa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Tuivasa's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pavlovich has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Tuivasa
Pavlovich
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
+84"
33+
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Tuivasa
Pavlovich
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.2
59.8
50.4
Performance Avg
60.6
54
Quality of Victory
53
20
Momentum Score
59
Tuivasa
Pavlovich
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
2.5
55%
Strike Accuracy
47%
9.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.9
7 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
23
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance16
0Clinch1
0Ground6
Tuivasa
Pavlovich
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.3
/ 10
0.6
/ 10
0.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Tuivasa
Pavlovich
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/25 fights
Chin rating based on
12/23 fights
Tuivasa
Pavlovich
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
59
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Tuivasa
Pavlovich
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
75%
7
KO / TKO Wins
6
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tuivasa
Pavlovich
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.9
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.6
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
1.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
TuivasaPavlovich
Strike Zones
Tuivasa
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedPavlovich
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tuivasa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Pavlovich absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Pavlovich targets the head (100% of attacks) — Tuivasa absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tuivasa
RND
Pavlovich
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Tuivasa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Pavlovich · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Tuivasa · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Louie SutherlandRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Tallison TeixeiraRating 6.7Decision
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
L · Dec · R3
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 6.6Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 1.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · 2024-03
L · Sub · R2
Alexander VolkovRating 4Submission
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
Pavlovich · Last 5
Upcoming
Tallison TeixeiraUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
L · KO · R1
Tom AspinallRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11