UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2
Montevideo, Uruguay
10 Aug 2019
Lightweight
VS
53%
Vargas
47%
Silva
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Vargas
This is a genuine toss-up — Vargas at 53% vs Silva at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Vargas has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Vargas
Silva
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
71"
Reach
+73"
40
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Vargas
Silva
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.3
14.5
25.0
Performance Avg
25.0
25
Quality of Victory
25
33
Momentum Score
17
Vargas
Silva
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.1
51%
Strike Accuracy
43%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
3
1
Body
0
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance3
0Clinch1
0Ground1
Vargas
Silva
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Vargas
Silva
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/17 fights
Chin rating based on
4/25 fights
Vargas
Silva
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
17
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Vargas
Silva
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Vargas
Silva
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
VargasSilva
Strike Zones
Vargas
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedSilva
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Vargas targets the head (83% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Silva targets the head (60% of attacks) — Vargas absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Vargas
RND
Silva
0/0R00/0
Vargas · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Silva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Vargas · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Paddy PimblettRating 3.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Aspinall · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
RongzhuRating 5Decision
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · R1
Brok WeaverRating 4UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Alex Da SilvaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08
Silva · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Joe SoleckiRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · 2022-06
L · Dec · R3
Brad RiddellRating 5.5Decision
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09
W · Dec · R3
Kazula VargasRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08
L · Sub · R2
Alexander YakovlevRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04